GE shares fell 1.7% to $13.38 at 10:00 a.m. New York time on Monday, July 2, after J.P. Morgan's Stephan Tusa said what remains of the Boston-based industrial conglomerate following assets sales is "significantly overvalued" based on his sum-of-the-parts analysis.
"At the current roughly $14 stock price, we calculate RemainGE (RGE) needs to support approximately $11 of value on the back of what we see as $0.40/$0.33 in EPS/ [free cash flow] in 2019," Tusa wrote in a July 2 research note. "This implies that [in] 2019, the stock is trading at 26-times P/E and a 3% FCF yield versus the sector at 16.5-times and about 6%, both 50%+ premiums."
Tusa maintained his Underweight rating and $11 price target on GE stock.
GE stock rose more than 6% last week after announcing plans to spin off its healthcare division and exit its stake in oilfield services company Baker Hughes (BHGE - Get Report) . The spin-off of the healthcare unit is expected to be completed over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Chief Executive Officer John Flannery. The exit of the Baker Hughes stake, meanwhile, is expected to occur over the next two to three years.
Despite the enthusiasm from investors over this news, the J.P. Morgan analyst, who has been Underweight on GE since May 2016, sees "a reasonable bear case that ... would imply $6 [per share] for RGE, and a price target of $9."
"We still see structural concerns in the key Power markets, minimal margin for error on leverage, numerous tail liabilities at both GE and [GE Capital Services]," Tusa said.
"Perhaps not well understood is that 2019 is shaping up to be much like 2018, with management now messaging no decline in cash restructuring and only a modest decline in book restructuring," said Tusa.
Tusa's bear case counters William Blair analyst Nicholas Heymann's bull case, in which he sees GE stock rising to upper $20s around 2021.
"Assuming the now stabilized, unburdened and deleveraged (2.5-times net debt/EBITDA year-end 2020) GE Industrial trades at a 16 [price to earnings] multiple on 2021 expected EPS of $1.35 and Healthcare is valued at 16-times 2021 expected EPS of 37 cents or $6.00 per share, this should allow GE's share price to reach $27 to $28 per share by 2021," Heymann told TheStreet last week.
There are five Buys, 15 Holds and three Sell ratings on GE stock, according to Bloomberg data.