For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, ending April 30, Cloudera estimates subscription revenue of $195 million to $197 million, down from $206.8 million posted for the fiscal 2021 fourth quarter.
For fiscal 2022, ending Jan. 31, Cloudera forecast subscription revenue of $822 million to $832 million, compared with $782.8 million for fiscal 2021.
Cloudera recently traded at $12.71, down 14%. It’s up 14% over the past six months amid investor enthusiasm for cloud software companies.
Stifel analyst Brad Reback rates the Palo Alto, Calif., company hold, with a $13 price target. Subscription growth will likely slow markedly, as the company focuses more on Cloudera Data Platforms, he said.
“Until there is clear line of sight on sustained CDP Public Cloud consumption revenue growth and new customer growth, we expect little multiple expansion,” Reback wrote in a commentary cited by Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, D.A. Davidson analyst Rishi Jaluria has qualms, though he rates Cloudera a buy and raised his price target to $16 from $15.
“Guidance calls for subscription revenue to decline sequentially, even excluding the impact of non-recurring revenue, which investors never want to see in a subscription software company,”
Jaluria wrote in a commentary cited by Bloomberg.
Despite the setbacks, fourth-quarter earnings still looked good, he said.
Cloudera shares rose in December, after it reported better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results and lifted its share-buyback plan by $500 million.