Editor's note: This column was submitted by Stockpickr member Faisal Laljee, author of StocksandBlogs.com.
I hate to be a party pooper, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the excitement surrounding all the recent China stock IPOs reminds me of the
exuberance of 2000.
Granted, China is growing at a 10% pace, but does that justify the 80 multiple currently sported by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, especially when compared to the meager 16 multiple of the
? We may be seeing hints today of a more rational market to come -- check out
Bubble Fears Circle Chinese Tech Stocks
from this morning.
It seems as though every day, all day, I see new tickers scroll across my TV screen representing new companies I've never heard of:
China Digital TV
China Natural Resources
China Finance Online
... the list goes on. Many have no history of earnings.
The Chinese market is up 110% so far this year and more than 200% since January 2006.
Even stocks like
, stocks that actually have an earnings history and have some claim to investor confidence are up like the
( ARBA) of the tech bubble.
I don't know when the party will end, but it will definitely end unless we see a near-term, decent-sized correction. And when it ends, I would hate to be holding anything that starts with the word China.
My recommendation: If you are a gambler, keep betting on China until one day you lose a lot of money. Otherwise, reduce your exposure to China (note I say "reduce" because I don't know when a top will come -- nobody does).
, France and even Indonesia.
Alternatively, you can pick up select names in Latin America, Europe, Turkey and Brazil. There are plenty of ways to make 30% to 40% returns a year without the risk of losing your shirt.
At the time of publication, Laljee was long China Mobile (but has taken half his position off over the last week). Positions, however, may change at any time.
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