Gold had a tough time on Friday. The metal has backed off from the April highs, and traders are starting to wonder if the commodity is breaking down. The long-term bull market in gold is not dead, but the intermarket relationships affecting gold have reached a potential inflection point.
Gold is different from any other commodity, since the metal has monetary relationships and is not simply driven by demand. For example, it has an inverse relationship to the dollar, and the dollar is tied to interest rates and the economic outlook. These monetary relationships came into play last week as rates rallied and the dollar surged, pushing gold back to the long-term trend line. Because of this, there may be an opportunity to get long the commodity at this level.
The change in rates last week has had a ripple effect on the market. Equities moved lower on concerns over liquidity, and the dollar rallied from an oversold downtrend. The weakness in the dollar has been driven not only by relatively low rates but also by a sluggish economy when compared with the dynamic global growth story.
Booming Asian growth and surging global commodity prices have made the dollar look like a bad choice on a relative basis. The real economic strength is found overseas these days. The recent surge in rates suggests the domestic economy may be gaining strength and picking up, relatively speaking. This concern pushed the dollar higher, but it's holding the downtrend line, and the rally looks like only an oversold bounce off the lows so far.
Gold has fallen $50 in the last two months, and the recent push in the rates and the dollar have brought the metal back for a retest of the long-term uptrend line at $639. This would be a natural place to expect a rebound in gold prices and a rally back to overhead resistance line at $685.
A breakout over resistance at $685 would suggest that the bulls are back in control and that the metal wants to resume the primary uptrend. If the dollar breaks the downtrend line and gold breaks the uptrend line, then we would have to say that there has been a real change in this market. It would suggest that traders may need to change their market view, but we expect the status quo to be maintained.
Gold Shares ETF
The easiest way for investors to get involved in the gold market is to trade the
streetTracks Gold Trust
. Buy the GLD at $65 and use a break of the uptrend line at $63.50 as a stop loss.
Look for a rally over the resistance line $68 to confirm that the commodity is seeing a bullish breakout. Gold is presenting a solid technical trade at these levels, and the risk/reward scenario makes this an attractive investment.
At the time of publication, John Hughes and Scott Maragioglio had no positions in the stocks mentioned. Hughes and Maragioglio co-founded Epiphany Equity Research, which has developed and utilizes proprietary tools to identify and track liquidity changes in the market indices and sectors. Hughes advises numerous asset managers, hedge funds and institutions managing in excess of $30 billion. Maragioglio is a member of the market technicians association (MTA) as well as The American Association of Professional Technical Analysts (AAPTA) and holds a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. Maragioglio has also served on the board of directors of the AAPTA.