NEW YORK (Real Money) -- I'm certainly not looking at Tesla Motors (TSLA) - Get Report from the fundamental side when I say there may be a long opportunity, but the short-term setup is there today and the longer-term setup is close to triggering this week.
The daily setup is trying to break out today. Unfortunately, yet another gap higher could very well be faded. Still, a close over $270 and Tesla will break out of a recent trading channel that ran $10 wide. The shares have been consistently following the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) higher and have been non-stop bullish since the 20-day SMA crossed above the 50-day SMA. While the Force Index and volume have subsided, they have remained bullish and consistent with the consolidation thesis of late.
Whether you hate the fundamentals or simply dislike them, I can't see a reason to be short while the stock is trading over $260. The upside here points to $280 -- minimally -- with follow through making even $300 possible. For those not wanting to chase, I would wait for a bounce off the 20-day SMA, then buy with a stop on a close under the 20-day SMA.
For the long-term breakout to take hold, the daily breakout needs to uphold its end of the deal. Again, we find support at $260 on this rising wedge, but the upside target from the daily chart of $280 is also the key breakout level for the weekly chart, which is why I think a push over $280 could bring significant upside, although I don't believe it will last long.
Basically, I believe over $280, we'd see a quick momentum burst into the $300-$310 zone, but it would get faded once the relative strength index (RSI) pushed into the high 70s or low 80s. That area marked the last two significant tops. Notice the RSI still is not there yet, which favors the bulls. The Force Index is bullish, so the price action plus volume, has been consistent; however, this has been more of a confirmation indicator, unlike the overbought RSI, which has been a solid leading indicator as of late.
If playing the daily chart, then a simple July $270-$285 call spread would be my preferred approach. Otherwise, I would be looking more toward an August $280-$310 type of call spread giving myself time and space to let this one work but limit my risk.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Real Money on July 1.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author was long TSLA call spread.