NEW YORK (Real Money) -- A convertible note offering that reads like microwave cooking instructions from the late 1980s has FireEye (FEYE) - Get Report seeing red today, but this looks like an opportunity or, at the very least, a setup on the bullish side of the coin.
FireEye has been trading in a fairly wide range since its mid-February breakout. The range encompasses the entirety of the breakout, which is a little odd, but I view this as one big retest of that push higher. The range has been tightening a bit, which is a plus for expectations of volatility. Then again, that is a double-edged sword. You don't want to be on the wrong side of volatility. Just ask anyone longWorkday (WDAY) - Get Report or short Michael Kors (KORS) puts today.
Today's drop in price for FireEye has the daily chart forming a small bull flag after the push off of $40. We are doing this right at the top of the Bollinger band, which could set up the stock for a small slingshot higher on any move over $45.25. Buyers right now would need to be a little patient and willing to keep a tight stop around $43.75, maybe as low as $43.50. Momentum and trend are favorable, so I wouldn't be in a hurry to short FireEye on this news today or even under $43.75.
This move is very similar to early February when FEYE pushed above the upper Bollinger band, only to fall back for a few days before the eventual breakout. The %B, moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator and relative strength index (RSI), along with the price action, are almost a mirror. The February run lasted a solid five days and even though it hurt a bit missing the first day of the breakout, there was still good upside there, so I don't see any issues waiting for a confirmed breakout. However, a reversal today would be a huge step in the right direction and might even trigger a buy.
The weekly chart gives a clearer picture on the action in the daily chart. The consolidation seen on the daily chart forms a nice cup on the weekly chart. This cup is a consolidation of the move higher that began off the October bottom. The stock rallied about $20, fell back almost $8 and is now pushing those recent highs. This is perfect symmetry for the cup depth. The chart does lack a handle here, which is worth noting, but a break over $45.25 should push FEYE back into the lower $50s before the fourth quarter.
While there is a little hesitation in the secondary indicators, this is to be expected as the price action is a consolidation at the moment. As long as the RSI doesn't push under 50 or the vortex indicator become very bearish, I would stay on the side of the bulls. A price under $40 negates any of this and puts us on the lookout for a move back to $35.
Overall, my expectations are for a breakout to occur in the next week and FEYE to be over $50 before the fall and winter holidays are even a thought.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 11:31 a.m. EDT on Real Money on May 27.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.