NEW YORK (Real Money) -- At first, I wanted to put an asterisk by this bear chart of the day. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) - Get Report exchange-traded fund has a lot of potential to bounce here. Looking at the daily chart, price is right on support and the slow stochastics may be looking at a bullish crossover while in oversold territory.
This was a great buying time in March, but what's missing here is the oversold RSI. The only thing RSI has done is confirm the price movement. And I'm not sold on this stochastics cross here. Based on today's action, this signal may reverse before the close of the day. Toss in the fact that gold hasn't done anything significant while worries build. It simply feels like we are destined to test $110. At best, I might consider a straddle or strangle here if I wanted some upside exposure, but there isn't enough here for me to want to try to play the bounce solo.
The weekly picture provides a bit more hope here from the RSI. In a twist from the daily chart, though, the stochastics lends no weight for a bullish or bounce thesis. These two have flip-flopped. The bearish trend is much more obvious on the weekly chart. This hasn't been a swift move lower, but a gently moving bearish channel extending back to 2013.
There is no reason to believe a bullish trend of any length can develop until $120 is broken to the upside. There is minor support at $110, which I expect to test on a close under $112, but the weekly chart lends support to the bearish thesis of a $108 target, the lower support line of the current bearish channel. Given the width of the channel, I'm still open to the idea of straddle or strangle trades, as a $4 move over the next few weeks appears very realistic.
I simply don't like the action in gold given the geopolitical risks already well known. The chart is not acting like a safe haven, but rather a source of liquidity.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 11:45 a.m. EDT on Real Money on June 30.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.