NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Don't mistake one or two days' bounce as a bottom in oil and energy. All things are not yet well. What's formed, in many cases, are bear flags. Look at Range Resources (RRC) - Get Report as an example. This one already has earnings out of the way, so we can take the worry of a surprise off the table here.
May and June were atrocious. The stock dropped from $64 all the way down to $48 before the start of July looked to maybe turn things around. Range Resources managed to make a few small higher lows and higher highs, but what some thought might be a turning bottom ended up being nothing more than a bearish flag.
During the bounce, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to get over 50, let alone 40. While we did see a bullish crossover in the Slow Stochastics, there was no follow-through on either the indicator or the price of the stock. The breakdown led to another 15% slide in the stock.
The past week has set up almost exactly the same pattern. The RSI has bounced, but turned lower again at the 40 mark. The Slow Stochastics did cross over, but the price action mirrors what happened at the beginning of June with the bearish flag formation. If RRC can get consecutive closes over $44, then I do think it could work its way higher into the $46 area, but a breakdown looks more likely targeting $38 to $40 on a close under $42.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Real Money on July 30.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.