NEW YORK (Real Money) --The overnight malaise was about the worst we've experienced thus far. Yesterday, it sounded like the "big one" was coming to the markets on Monday, but so far we've had a rather "ho-hum" reaction. It's impossible to say everything will be fine, though. Puerto Rico has been added to the default worry list along with Greece, so we'll see if the headlines get shared, but for right now it is still all about Greece.
It's not a bad day to make a shopping list, but I still split my day. Finding potential breakdowns at the moment feels just as necessary as finding breakouts. Semiconductors have been divided recently, with many of the old-school names suffering while a new group takes the lead.
Although not quite old school, I put ARM Holdings (ARMH) in the "been around for a bit" category. This is one chart where I have some concerns. The stock has already given up quite a lot in the past three days and shorting in the hole can be difficult, but we still may have more downside to come.
ARMH broke through a short-term support Friday and tested a longer-term support level, which did hold. This morning, the stock opened below the longer-term support and now risks a bearish trend developing. If ARMH can get back over $51, it'll be back in the trading channel and more neutral. However, the $50.70 and $51.20 areas are now both resistance. A bounce into that area without follow through should set up ARMH to test $47-$48 in the month of July.
The slow stochastics experienced a bearish crossover and trend is accelerating in the favor of the bears. Furthermore, the relative strength index (RSI) has lost the long-term support trend, but still sits well above an extreme oversold level, meaning there is plenty more room for downside momentum. This doesn't even look like a potential dead cat bounce play. Overall, ARMH looks like an avoid in the short term.
As far as the longer-term picture goes, the end of this week looks more important than the daily chart. In fact, a drop to $48 isn't the "end of the world" based on the weekly chart. When I look at the weekly chart, though, the test of $48 based on a daily chart breakdown seems more inevitable. We are below the trading channel of the last few months, with $48 being the next big support. A close back over $51 does the same for the weekly chart as it does for the daily chart; however, here we see how strong the resistance just over $54 looks, so bulls should understand this is the likely cap to an upside move. Unfortunately, a weekly close under $48 would mean significant downside ahead -- as in the magnitude of 15%-20%.
Even more challenging is the fact I'm seeing the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the slow stochastics just cross out of bullish territory and into a more neutral view, while the RSI is already crossing into bearish territory. At the very best, that's a hold view where one would write or overwrite calls against a position. At the worst, it tells us downside is more likely and could be sizeable.
While ARMH would likely bounce if the overall market bounced, I don't view the stock as an outperformer without the help of some outlier event like a buyout. There are many other names in the semiconductor sector worth pursuing at the moment. When ARMH is over $55, I'll be very interested, but until then it is on my avoid list.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 11:25 a.m. EDT on Real Money on June 29.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.