The Cupertino, Calif., company is likely to sell 40 million iPhones from Thanksgiving through Christmas, the global chip shortage not withstanding, Wedbush analysts Dan Ives and John Katsingris said in a note.
"We estimate in China alone there are roughly 15 million iPhone 13 upgrades for the December quarter as this key region remains a major source of strength for Apple heading into 2022 and beyond," Ives wrote in a note to investors.
For the quarter, Apple is estimated to sell over 80 million iPhone units with Pro versions driving demand.
The new iPhone 13 Pro ($999 and up) and iPhone 13 Pro Max ($1,099 and up) have a more premium design, three cameras and new smoother-looking displays, the analysts wrote.
Ives and Katsingris cautioned that delivery times for Apple's iPhone 13 Pro have lengthened as demand outstrips supply.
But they urged investors to recognize that "the pent-up demand story for Cupertino is still being underestimated."
Wedbush views supply-chain shortages as a catalyst to a multiyear supercycle for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13.
Ives described the chip shortage as the "Grinch heading into Christmas" that's limiting global iPhone supply by 10 million units.
Wedbush has an outperform rating and a price target of $185 on the stock.
The third-generation AirPods that feature better sound, battery life and water resistance are also expected to be a hit this holiday season, Wedbush said.
"Apple could ship close to 100 million AirPod units with a strong holiday performance already underway," the analysts wrote.
Shares of Apple at last check edged 0.8% lower to $151.22.
Apple said last month that supply chain woes ripped $6 billion from its September-quarter sales.