Doug Kass shares his views every day on RealMoneyPro. Click here for a real-time look at his insights and musings.
Tell Me Something I Don't Know About the U.S. Dollar
Originally published Dec. 28 at 12:51 p.m. EDT
Regular readers of my Diary know that I sometimes post things that replicate the theme of the "Tell Me Something I Don't Know" segment on MSNBC's "Hardball With Chris Matthews."
So ... "Tell me something I don't know, Dougie."
OK, here goes:
The euro/U.S. dollar has moved to the low of the day--at $1.0377. That's a multi-month low.
With our currency's strength, investors are whistling past the graveyard of U.S. multinational profitability.
Beware of the consensus re-inflation trade. Be fearful of elevated investor sentiment. Question rising valuations and an overly optimistic S&P EPS forecasts (for 2017-18) -- at a time that the media is too fixated on Dow 20,000 (and maybe missing the bigger and more negative larger picture).
Always think independently and make decisions not by viewing what is said in the business media but by assessing reward vs. risk within the context of one's risk profile and time frames.
Position: Long SDS; short SPY, IWM small, QQQ.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly in Trading
Originally published Dec. 27 at 2:45 p.m. EDT
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
--Blondie, "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly"
Here's a quick review of today's market action:
- Mr. Market continues to follow through with strength that has been in place since the Trump victory.
- QQQs over Ss and Rs. QQQ is a Best Pick for 2017.
- Technology, the leader--(T)FANG strong (led by Tesla (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc Report and Netflix (NFLX) - Get Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Report ).
- Banks continue their strong move.
- Blackstone/GSO Strategic Credit Fund (BGB) - Get Blackstone / GSO Strategic Credit Fund Report (up $0.08) though junk bonds are slightly lower.
- Huge gains in the agricultural commodities complex: Wheat up $0.16, corn up $0.08, soybeans up $0.20 and oats $0.10. (Potash Corporation of Saskachewan POT and Monsanto MON are well bid on these moves, though ag equipment weak).
- New high in Campbell Soup (CPB) - Get Campbell Soup Company Report and DuPont (DD) - Get DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Report . Another multipoint move higher in Allergan (AGN) - Get Allergan plc Report (recent buy at $194 and Best Ideas List inclusion). Here's my rationale.
- Apple (AAPL) - Get Apple Inc. (AAPL) Report is not rotten today.
- Bonds behaved poorly. The 10 year and long bond rose by between 3-4 basis points in yield. I bought a trading position in iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT) - Get iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Report in front of a possible yearend pension rebalance.
- Big pharma stinks up the joint, again.
- Spec biotech is weakening again (Portola Pharmaceuticals PTLA, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals ACAD, etc.)
- Retail cant get out of its way. I am long JC Penney (JCP) - Get J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Report and have trading positions in Kohl's (KSS) - Get Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Report and Macy's (M) - Get Macy's Inc Report . (Nike (NKE) - Get NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Report , Nordstrom (JWN) - Get Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) Report , Lowe's (LOW) - Get Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Report are downside features).
- Sears Holdings (SHLD) makes a new low. (See Surprise #1 in my Surprise List).
There will be no "Trade of the Week" this week -- it's too short!
I hope my Surprise List was good food for thought.
Long: SDS, JCP large, KSS small, M small, TLT small, CPB large, AGN, DD small
Short: AAPL large, QQQ, IWM small, SPY
Position: See above.
Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, is long AGN and AAPL.
Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.