The firm expects fiscal-third-quarter revenue from Canadian cannabis shipments for adult use to fall from the second quarter.
Aphria, Leamington, Ontario, is scheduled to report its quarterly results next Monday.
Stifel analyst W. Andrew Carter said "renewed excitement for the cannabis sector [yielded] disproportionate gains for U.S.-listed Canadian producers during first-quarter 2021 (+98%, S&P 500 +6%)."
But "valuations overall are incognizant of the market's structural challenges and near-term headwinds likely to pressure first-quarter 2021 results."
Carter expects Aphria to report revenue of C$163 million, down from his previous estimate of C$175 million.
For the quarter ended Feb. 28, analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting Aphria to report a net loss of C$0.04 a share on revenue of C$164.7 million.
Carter nonetheless raised his price target to C$22 from C$17.50 a share. He affirmed a hold rating on the stock.
Aphria shares traded in Toronto closed Monday at $22.79. At last check the shares traded on Nasdaq were off 0.7% at $18.07.
Terms call for Tilray to pay 0.8381 share for each Aphria share. The deal value is nearly $4 billion.
"Our focus remains on the pending merger with Tilray, with our hold rating balancing our enthusiasm for the combined vehicle's robust growth prospects against more challenging near-term results with execution/integration critical to the platform's long-term success," Carter said.
Aphria shares have more than doubled (up 160%) in 2021 to date. Tilray likewise is up nearly 170% over the same period.
Tilray shares on Nasdaq recently traded down 3% at $21.41.