Goldman Sachs on Tuesday trimmed its estimate for Tesla's (TSLA) - Get Report vehicle deliveries for the first half of 2017 and reiterated a sell rating on the Elon Musk-led darling of the nation's daytraders.
Goldman said that it expects Tesla to report about 23,500 deliveries in the first quarter, "mid-point of 22,500 to 24,500 range, implying a pace toward the lower end of the company's first-half guidance of 47,000 to 50,000 vehicle deliveries and below consensus (24,600)."
Goldman valued the company and broke it down by business line, saying the auto unit's worth about $146 a share, the Tesla Energy segment about $32, and the SolarCity segment at $9, for a $187 total price target. Given Tesla's current market price that means Goldman see an almost 30% downside for the shares.
Analysts at Pacific Crest largely agreed with Goldman's delivery estimates.
"Our checks indicate that Tesla first-quarter deliveries are tracking in line to slightly behind expectations. While Model 3 remains the sizzle in the stock, for now, our longer-term bias remains more negative given that Model X demand continues to show up soft, Model S deliveries appear to be down y/y for three of the past four quarters, and Model 3 production ramp remains fraught with risk," the analysts told clients in a Tuesday research report.
They also said that recent channel checks showed continuing solid demand for its SUV Model X, but that in some cases Tesla is discounting, again. "We found offers to waive transportation fees, passing along of existing customer referral codes and inconsistent discounting formulas for inventory models, they wrote.
Pacific Crest trimmed its earnings estimate for Tesla to, blaming rising research and development costs and higher interest on its recent convertible offering. "The Model 3 could still be an incredible trade," the analysts wrote, "but ultimately the stock should come down."