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How many people are now seeing the head-and-shoulders bottom in oil?
Where were these folks a few weeks ago? Nowhere to be found!
last checked in on oil, it was at $62 and change, and the bulls were everywhere. I was looking for a move down to $55 to $57 for a shakeout. We got that before last week's midweek rally.
The weekly chart still shows the head-and-shoulders bottom that I was anticipating several weeks ago:
But now let's take a closer look at the daily chart. As you know, I hate being part of consensus. Three weeks ago, the consensus was that oil was going to $70. So instead, it fell $5. That shook out the weak holders, and off we went to the upside. In the past few days, we've had great supply numbers, unrest in Nigeria and oil-bullish news out of Iran. This has given us quite a rally in oil. But still, it has not broken out, even on all those oil-positive developments.
Now, of course, half the investment world is discussing the head-and-shoulders bottom in oil's weekly chart. As you can see on the daily chart, oil is trapped in a trading range between $59 and $63. I don't expect it to break out imminently. Instead, it will probably stay within the range, frustrating everyone.
A reader asked me why I hadn't commented on copper's massive move, so I will. As longtime readers know, in the height of copper's collapse in January, I
was bullish on copper. I even
followed up in February with a target price in the $3 area. I never expected copper to blow through, $3 though.
I suppose I can now calculate a target around $3.30 on copper, but let's look at the weekly chart first.
No matter how we draw that line, using a thick pencil or a thin one, copper is still at resistance. Even if it gets through the downtrend line, resistance is just overhead to stop the move, right around $3.25.
Also, note that this rally has taken copper right back to the underside of its broken uptrend line on the weekly chart.
When it comes to copper stocks,
has a very different chart than the rest of the group; it has a big base, but that's more likely because of its deal with
than because of copper. After all, if you look at the chart of
, it has gone nowhere forever. And
Southern Peru Copper
made its high a month ago.
Now the only missing ingredient is for the media to get all excited about copper. That will probably come shortly, and then we'll know the move in copper is done!
As for the stock market, yesterday's action will surely embolden the bulls and give the bears angst. The put/call ratio remains high, but not as high as it was. On five of the past six trading days, the ratio was below 100%, something we hadn't seen in nearly four weeks.
What really intrigues me is that with the housing data as bad as they were, bonds couldn't rally. So while the bulls will be emboldened by a stock market that can't go down on bad news, I find it even more interesting that the bonds couldn't go up on "good" news. Don't you find it curious that everyone is so quick to see the head-and-shoulders pattern in oil, but they're not so quick to do so in
For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's
At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information,
. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback;
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