Shares of Alcoa (AA) - Get Report climbed 5.1% to $21.88 Wednesday after Credit Suisse upgraded the aluminum products and wrap maker to outperform from neutral and raised its share price target to $27 from $26.
Analyst Curt Woodworth said in note to investors that he expects alumina prices to recover on "significant" capacity cuts in China, an end to inventory destocking, and the Alpart shutdown.
Chinese Jiuquan Iron & Steel recently shutdown the Alpart plant in Jamaica to upgrade the facility, but the Jamaica Observer reported Wednesday that neither government nor trade union officials had any details about the project.
"In our view," Woodworth wrote, "investors do not appreciate the significant cost down underway in the core smelter business as caustic soda, energy, coke, and carbon anode prices have all steadily declined in prices over the past six months and generally flow through segment COGS on a six month lag supporting the outlook through early 2020 in our view."
Woodworth said that Alcoa's restructuring efforts should also drive "material tailwinds" to its mid-cycle free cash flow starting early 2020. He believes Alcoa shares appear "significantly undervalued on most metrics."
Alcoa on Monday announced the restructuring plan that will eliminate at least one of its units, cut its executive team, consolidate sales and reduce costs.
The company said that as of Nov. 1 it will implement "a new operating model that will result in a leaner, more integrated, operator-centric organization that accelerates the company's strategic priorities."
As part of that effort, the company's executive team will be streamlined to seven department heads from 12 that report to the CEO, which will "reduce overhead" as well as increase connectivity between the company's plants and leadership.
"Alcoa's announcement of a major restructuring to streamline its organizational structure is consistent with its long return message to simplify its business," Woodworth wrote. "We forecast potential savings of $60-80mm and expect AA to quantify the impact this quarter."
Last month, Alcoa and the Untied Steelworkers reached a tentative agreement on a master contract.