This column was originally published on RealMoney on June 21 at 9:03 a.m. EDT.
The topic of the day Monday was oil. Oil at $60. Will it close there? Or above it? Oil stocks surging to new highs. Will high oil prices affect the economy? Or maybe it will affect the stock market?
It was almost a relief from hearing about the real estate business, which has become the other hot topic all over the place.
But on the oil front, some folks have asked where it measures to. It is obvious for all to see that we are just now at the old highs from two or three months ago. If I drew in some lines and measured the pattern, it would measure to about $64 on the current contract (July) in crude oil.
So I believe this current run on oil ought to stop somewhere between here and $64-ish. In other words, this current run is nearing its initial target.
But that isn't what caught my eye Monday.
What caught my eye was that the airlines not only saw the selling of the past week or so dry up, they actually found some buyers. At first it was obvious in the
chart. Then I saw that
didn't go down either. And when I posted the chart of
, the one on the verge of bankruptcy, the selling dried up there as well.
From there I looked at
. And I recalled that Northwest had all these issues surrounding it last week with discussions of bankruptcy and price hikes that didn't stick. Yet shares did not make a new low. So we have oil at $60 and bad news abounds, yet the stock does not make a new low.
Now Northwest's chart isn't a good one, but if this stock is not going to make a new low with all that negative news, I say we have to notice it. And so we turn to the chart of AMR, which is probably the best of the bunch.
AMR ought to find some support between here and its breakout level at $11.50. AMR has been acting quite well in the face of higher oil. Note that it corrected back in April when oil first hit $58 a barrel, but as soon as oil started to fall, AMR started to rise. This may be a case of which came first, the chicken or the egg (did oil fall first or AMR rise?), but there is clearly a slight relationship that bears watching in here.
For the market as a whole, the averages may have come back to flat toward the end of the day, but the breadth did not. Now we have two days in a row where breadth underperformed the averages, something that was not happening last week. However, for now, this action has not tipped the intermediate-term indicators, and they continue to point upward.
For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's
Helene Meisler writes a technical analysis column on the U.S. equity markets and updates her charts daily. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. At time of publication, she held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback;
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