Updated from 7:08 a.m. EDT
It might be impossible to catch a falling knife, but given a company's fundamentals, it can be possible to see when current market sentiment regarding a company's future earnings power has reached a panic-level peak. Shares of
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold
fall perfectly into that category.
Freeport-McMoRan, which is currently trading for $45, hit an all-time high of $126 per share in mid-May. Additionally, from Sept. 26 to the close on Friday, Oct. 3, shares have fallen from $65 to $45, down a whopping 35%, as the great commodity unwind takes place.
In our view, this hideous decline in shares of Freeport-McMoRan represents a generational buying opportunity.
Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest copper, gold and molybdenum mining companies in terms of proven reserves and production levels. The company has worldwide reveres of copper of around 90 billion pounds, 1.8 billion pounds of molybdenum and 41 million ounces of gold, with production levels since mid-2008 of 4.35 billion pounds of copper, 85 million pounds of molybdenum and 1.8 million ounces of gold. In 2007, mining revenues by commodity were comprised of 78% copper, 12% molybdenum and 10% gold. In mid-2006, Freeport and Phelps Dodge announced that they signed a definitive merger agreement under which Freeport would acquire Phelps Dodge for approximately $26 billion dollars in cash, creating the world's largest publicly traded copper company.
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