I screw around with charts all the time. I look at a lot of balance sheets, too. Analysis is analysis. In my opinion, any trader using either technical or fundamental analysis to the exclusion of the other, without also making any attempt to mesh macroeconomic trends and expected policy impact into one's conclusions is really not putting in the necessary work.
Labor of love? Not really. More like the need to hunt and kill in order to provide. Well, last night after downing more cookies and Irish whiskey (great combo) than a man my age probably should, I saw a headline. Israel had approved a $185 million grant for Intel in return for a $5 billion expansion plan for the firm's operations in that country. Made me pull up the charts on the name.
While I think I see support that could come in as high as $42, and perhaps as low as $41.50, it was the Fibonacci Time Zones that really caught my eye. Lining up the lows of 2017 as a start point, these time lines seem to turn direction, sometimes short-term, and sometimes to far more-significant effect, but they do seem to work. Guess what? The name seems to be closing in on such a line right freaking now, Tex.
What This Means
I remain long some Intel (INTC) - Get Report . Yes, I have repositioned myself far more defensively; but still I retain at least trace positions in many of may favorite tech names, even those exposed to China. Dry powder is not a problem, as I have publicly encouraged higher cash levels for close to 11 months now.
Given (1) that headline, (2) the charts, (3) that Intel has really executed quite well (in my opinion) in the absence of a permanent CEO, (4) that interim CEO, Robert Swan, has been adding shares, and (5) that the name pays shareholders 2.75%, that gives me five reasons why this will likely be the first tech name where I start rebuilding my position, albeit slowly.
Yes, I am still working my way out of Micron Technology (MU) - Get Report , and still managing Nvidia (NVDA) - Get Report through net-basis manipulation. This will be a process. So will be getting back in shape, physically. Will I win this one? They say that past history is no guarantee of future results. Guess I'll just have to let you know.
--Position: Adding to long in small increments.
--Target Price: $49, down from $52.
--Panic Point: $41, down from $42.
(An earlier version of this column appeared at 8.23 a.m. ET on Real Money, our premium site for active traders. Click here to get great columns like this from Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle, Jim Cramer and other experts throughout the market day.)
At the time of publication, Stephen Guilfoyle was long INTC, MU, NVDA equity. Short MU, NVDA calls, short NVDA puts.