MILLBURN, N.J. (Stockpickr) -- 2011 is drawing to a close. While both professionals and do-it-yourself investors try to prognosticate the year ahead in advance, we're always dealt our fair share of surprises -- both good and bad.
Previously, I took a look at the
of the year. Now let's take a look at the
2012 Stock Predictions and Outlook
Research In Motion: -75.5%
The world of mobile telecommunications was exploding as we entered 2011. Smartphone usage was on the rise. The introduction of the
iPad launched another technological era, that of tablet devices.
All of the stars were lined up for
Research In Motion
( RIMM) to build off of its dominance in enterprise telephony to challenge Apple on both the smartphone and tablet wars. The battle lines were drawn.
But Research In Motion did not show up.
The company was unable to successfully transition its line of smartphones from corporate function to consumer fun. RIM's Playbook tablet was a flop, represented a small portion of its total sales and resulted in significant write-offs. Instead of an Apple-Research In Motion duopoly, smartphones using the
Android operating system now compete head to head with the iPhone, and the tablet market, while dominated by the iPad, has other successful entrants such as
Kindle line and
Barnes & Noble's
Research In Motion might not survive 2012 as an independent company. My vote both in terms of my technology purchases and investment holdings remains with AAPL, though I also own Google.
RIM, which shows up on a recent list of
, was featured recently in "
." Apple, on the other hand, shows up on a list of
and was featured in "
First Solar: -75.3%
Reduced reliance on fossil fuels and expansion of alternative energy, particularly solar energy, was a grand promise made by Barack Obama during his 2008 presidential run. However, as we have seen, solar energy is not all that it is cracked up to be.
The federal government gave tax breaks and over $500 million in loans to Solyndra, only to watch that company slip into bankruptcy. The entire industry is decaying before our eyes much like the dotcoms did a decade ago.
is off over 75% so far this year.
Just look at
. Who told us that we won't get fooled again? We did.
For another take on First Solar, one of the
, check out
. (The stock also appears on a recent list of
The office supply business overall had a poor year in 2011.
, the largest player in this specialty sector, declined 38.8% so far this year. Second banana
declined 60.4% in the same period, and
is off 75.7%.
So what is happening to the entire sector? Growth has slowed down to single digits for Staples and has run negative for the other two smaller competitors. Thanks to an intransigent Washington, small company creation and resultant job creation is small. Many people are starting business at home using existing equipment and supplies.
Lastly, general merchandisers such as
have expanded their office supply offering and floor space.
Office Max shows up on a list of
I came into 2011 with long positions in
stock but stopped myself out in the summer for a small loss. The thesis was that the company had an edge in the digital entertainment and graphics technology. Rovi had made some strategic acquisitions, such as Sonic, that would help to build its competitive edge.
As it turned out, Rovi was able to grow revenue and earnings this year. The company bested analysts' estimates in each of the first three quarters of the year. However, a third-quarter revenue shortfall and disappointing forward guidance sent the shares tumbling in November.
Questions about the company's ability to grow in the digital set-top box and interactive programming space spooked investors. The sudden crash in shares of digital entertainment giant
did not help the digital entertainment industry and leaves an uncertain future for companies such as Rovi, Netflix and
For another take on Rovi, check out
was the only America automobile manufacturer to survive the financial crisis without government aid and remained an independent company. The company's balance sheet, while not investment grade, was not in tatters and has steadily improved over the last three years. Just recently, the board of directors reinstated the company's dividend.
So why is the stock down by 37% in 2011 despite solid earnings and revenues? In one word: Europe. Despite Ford's delivering good sales in Europe for 2011, concerns that the continent's financial crisis and likely recession will greatly impact 2012 sales have weighed on the stock.
I was fortunate enough to make some decent money on Ford in 2010. In 2011, I repurchased Ford Warrants (F/WS) but have not fared as well on that last round of purchases. I am going to stick with my positions as I am confident that an improving economy in the U.S. and economic solutions in Europe will result in better-than-expected results.
Ford, one of TheStreet Ratings'
, shows up on a recent list of
To see these stock in action, check out the
portfolio. And be sure to check out the "
-- Written by Scott Rothbort in Millburn, N.J.
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At the time of publication, Rothbort was long Ford Warrants, Google, Amazon and Apple, although positions can change at any time.
Scott Rothbort has over 25 years of experience in the financial services industry. He is the Founder and President of
, a registered investment advisor specializing in customized separate account management for high net worth individuals. In addition, he is the founder of
, an educational social networking site; and, publisher of
. Rothbort is also a Term Professor of Finance at Seton Hall University's Stillman School of Business, where he teaches courses in finance and economics. He is the Chief Market Strategist for The Stillman School of Business and the co-supervisor of the Center for Securities Trading and Analysis.
Mr. Rothbort is a regular contributor to
TheStreet.com's RealMoney Silver
website and has frequently appeared as a professional guest on
Fox Business Network
and local television. As an expert in the field of derivatives and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), he frequently speaks at industry conferences. He is an ETF advisory board member for the Information Management Network, a global organizer of institutional finance and investment conferences. In addition, he is widely quoted in interviews in the printed press and on the internet.
Mr. Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management in 2002. Prior to that, since 1991, he worked at Merrill Lynch, where he held a wide variety of senior-level management positions, including Business Director for the Global Equity Derivative Department, Global Director for Equity Swaps Trading and Risk Management, and Director for secured funding and collateral management for the Global Capital Markets Group and Corporate Treasury. Prior to working at Merrill Lynch, within the financial services industry, he worked for County Nat West Securities and Morgan Stanley, where he had international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London. He began his career working at Price Waterhouse from 1982 to 1984.
Mr. Rothbort received an M.B.A., majoring in Finance and International Business from the Stern School of Business, New York University, in 1992, and a B.Sc. in Economics, majoring in Accounting, from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, in 1982. He is also a graduate of the prestigious Stuyvesant High School in New York City. Mr. Rothbort is married to Layni Horowitz Rothbort, a real estate attorney, and together they have five children.