BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Technology stocks in the S&P 500 have generated an average gain of 16% in 2010, ranking as the third worst-performing industry group. But as the recovery ramps up next year, tech stocks may lead, analysts say. Value-focused Morningstar covers hundreds of technology stocks, but awards its highest five-star rating to only four.

Here is a closer look at those four technology value stocks. They are expected to rise at least 53% and as much as 99%. Below, the stocks are ordered by potential return, from great to colossal.




Cisco Systems

(CSCO) - Get Report

makes networking equipment. It holds the dominant position in ethernet switches, with roughly 70% market share, a stable figure. It is also the leader in routers, with


(JNPR) - Get Report

grabbing second place.

Morningstar believes that Cisco's growth forecast, at 12% to 17% long-term, is too aggressive and its movement into the mature blade-server market is ill-advised, potentially threatening important tech partnerships with little chance of profit growth.

Still, at a forward earnings multiple around 10 and a cash flow multiple of 11, 43% and 37% industry discounts, Cisco is grossly undervalued. If management can avoid overpaying for acquisitions and focus on gaining market share in emerging and frontier markets, Cisco's stock will benefit enormously. Morningstar estimates Cisco's intrinsic fair-value at $30.

12-Month Sales Growth

: 20%

12-Month Net Income Growth

: 38%

Operating Profit Margin

: 22%

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

: 0.3

5-Year Average P/E

: 20

Current P/E

: 15

3. Santa Clara, Calif.-based

Applied Materials

(AMAT) - Get Report

sells manufacturing equipment to semiconductor, flat-panel display and solar companies. It has a dominant market share.

Morningstar says the company has a "wide economic moat", its perception of sustainable competitive advantages. According to Gartner, in 2009, Applied held 15% of a $17 billion market. It leverages existing relationships to build custom high-tech products, thus creating a durable revenue base.

Determined to maintain its position, it invests $1 billion a year into research and development. Its foray into the solar equipment business, though not currently a game-changer, will pay dividends in the long-run as alternative energy rises as a global priority.

Morningstar is forecasting a fiscal 2011 slowdown for Applied, with 3% sales growth, which will likely create a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The semiconductor space is unusually cyclical.

12-Month Sales Growth

: 90%

12-Month Net Income Growth

: 407%

Operating Profit Margin

: 24%

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

: Minimal

5-Year Average P/E

: 20

Current P/E

: 19


Advanced Micro Devices

(AMD) - Get Report

builds microprocessors for servers and computers. Its chief rival is


(INTC) - Get Report

, the world's largest chipmaker.

AMD has consistently lagged behind Intel, which was able to hold market share by maintaining a performance lead with its Core 2 chips. However, AMD stole market share between 2003 and 2006 when its Opteron chips beat out comparable Intel products.

Morningstar says AMD's Interlagos and Valencia server chips, to be released in 2011, could outperform and poach sales from Intel, which will also be releasing new chips. Interlagos and Valencia pack more cores on a single chip, boosting productivity and power savings at data-storage centers.

Unlike the aforementioned stock picks, AMD is the David, not the Goliath, in this investment thesis. Morningstar doesn't believe that AMD has any competitive moat, placing it at a long-term disadvantage, but thinks its stock is cheap when considering near-term earning prospects.

12-Month Sales Growth

: 32%

12-Month Net Income Growth

: 157%

Operating Profit Margin

: 7.9%

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

: 3.9

Industry Average P/E

: 20

AMD's Current P/E

: 5


Vimicro International


designs, manufactures and sells semiconductors in China. Specifically, it is the leading chipmaker for PC webcams and has enjoyed several design wins for its multimedia chips for mobile phones.

The company also has a unit focused on surveillance-camera chips. Although recent losses have hurt Vimicro's stock (it is down 31% in 2010), Morningstar expects a return to profitability in 2011, with an operating margin in the low- to mid-teens.

A major issue is the lack of intellectual property enforcement in China, which threatens Vimicro's market share. Also, the semiconductor industry is subject to technological obsolescence and sharp cyclical swings.

Morningstar values Vimicro at $7 with a residual income model, implying the stock could nearly double. It will need to face off against American companies in China, including


(NVDA) - Get Report


Texas Instruments

(TXN) - Get Report

. Vimicro has a home-field advantage.

12-Month Sales Growth

: 35%

12-Month Net Income Growth

: 56%

Operating Profit Margin

: -22%

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

: Minimal

Industry Forward P/E

: 14

VIMC's Forward P/E

: 52

-- Written by Jake Lynch in Boston.

To see these stocks in action, visit the

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on Stockpickr.


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