NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • The reversals in the oil-and-gas markets and the travel-and-leisure markets, and
  • The results of Alcoa's incredibly touch action.

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2 Huge Strikes Against the Market

Posted at 11:18 a.m. EST on Friday., Oct. 10, 2014

Not one but two bull markets are troubled, and they are at the root of the broader market's confusion. Their reversals are happening at a terrible time for each other and they are behind much of the relentless selling we have seen in the last few days. They are the bull markets in oil and the bull markets in travel and leisure. They have been two of the most reliably positive investment themes since the Great Recession ended, and now holders are fleeing them as if they are finished for the duration.

The oil-and-gas markets aren't just in retreat; they are being crushed. The cracks began when Europe started slowing its oil use. The biggest five countries in Europe are now using 5% less oil than they did year over year. Not all of that is conservation. They accelerated when the Saudis decided to go for market share rather than price, something few saw coming. It got much worse when hedge fund speculators got very long, betting that ISIS would shut down Iraqi production, taking off 2 to 3 million barrels per day from the world's supply. Instead, Libya and Iran began increasing production. Libya was in chaos but now we are hearing that as much as a million more barrels per day are being pumped vs. two years ago. We don't know the exact amount oil being pumped in Iran right now but it is more than enough to make up for anything that's come off line from Iraq or Syria.

Then there is the U.S. Everyone, including the most wild-eyed oilmen who have come on "Mad Money," has misjudged the revolution here. Every year we are bringing on an additional million barrels while consumption has increased by less than 500,000 barrels per day. We may use 18.5 million barrels per day in this country, but when you combine what we are expected to produce next year in with what Mexico and Canada can produce, remarkably, I know you won't believe this, we are only a couple of million barrels from continental self-sufficiency. And when it comes to the ability to refine all the oil we produce? We can't. It has to go overseas in some form or another, which is beginning to happen.

The glut, says Michael Mears, CEO of Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) - Get Report , among the largest oil-storage firms in the country, is very real and that means plans have to be scaled back otherwise oil will become uneconomic to drill for in all but the best of the shales: the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and maybe the Bakken.

But let's talk about the other side: travel and leisure. You often hear of travel and leisure being described as a multi-trillion-dollar industry. You know that airlines, hotels, restaurants and theme parks are all part of the equation. They are historically the biggest winners in any decline in gasoline and we are having the biggest decline in gasoline that we have seen since the Great Recession.

But at the exact same time we the Ebola health scare splashed everywhere, and each day we find we know less about how it spreads, or more specifically, how easily it spreads and how hard it is to kill. Until we either stop it, cure it or contain it, you have to believe that the travel-and-leisure impact is going to grow worse, not better.

I asked Kevin Miles, CEO of Zoe's Kitchen (ZOES) , one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the world, last night about Ebola and restaurant sensitivity to it, especially for Zoe's, which his based in Dallas, where the Ebola patient recently passed away. He said it could hurt the industry, no doubt, but it's not his job to contain it. It's the same for the people who run Carnival (CCL) - Get Report  and Royal Caribbean (RCL) - Get Report  cruises, or the Las Vegas and Macau casinos, for that matter.

Very true.

But when the hot money is leaving oil's bull market and going toward the logical beneficiary, the travel and leisure market, and that market then gets hit by Ebola, all I can say is two huge strikes have suddenly hit this market, hence, the chaos isn't easily stemmed in a few days' worth of horrendous declines.

There's a ray of hope, though. I don't think oil goes much below $80 per barrel, where oil companies here still do well. And Ebola will be contained -- I don't know when, but it will. Longer-term, we might look back and wonder why we sold. But short term? It seems rational when we get strength to do so.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Alcoa's Main Lesson

Posted at 6:13 a.m. EST on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014

At $8, when no one had faith in Alcoa (AA) - Get Report , CEO Klaus Kleinfeld and I spoke about how the company was on the cusp of some huge, positive changes. There was the expanded use for aluminum-based alloys in airplanes of all shapes and sizes. There was the potential success of the light weighting of the F-150, the most popular truck ever built. There was the possibility of aluminum no longer in glut and the financial players not in control of the commodity any more, keeping it down below real market prices. There was the chance for Alcoa to move down the cost curve by closing factories that were expensive and expanding ones that weren't.

It was all right there for the taking. But the downgrades were running thick and furious. Some of them seemed like they were ginned up, generating some alibi for negativity, any excuse just to distance themselves from the company. These downgrades tended to be done in a vacuum, without new research or even a check in with the company. I am not kidding; that's how shoddy some were.

Many in the analyst community had simply given up, both on the mineral and the company, as if Alcoa were Cliffs Natural (CLV)  and it made iron ore, or Arch Coal (ACI)  and it mined coal, both of which are in severe and worsening glut or in outright secular decline. Others fretted about the balance sheet, even as productivity kept improving and costs were disappearing right before their eyes. Still others thought that CEO Klaus Kleinfeld was making way too big a deal of aluminum's light-weight strength and would never be able to win big contracts to remake the pick-up truck industry.

The undercurrent: light-weighting's not a needle mover; it is a distraction from the core decline of the company's business and the inability to close poorly performing plants in countries where you simply can't lay off people anymore.

And almost everyone was wrong.

The company took incredibly tough action, shutting high-cost plants in union-dominated regions like Italy, Spain, Australia and northern U.S. Light-weighting took off out of nowhere, and now the company's got so much business from Ford (F) - Get Report for its new aluminum-built F-150s that it had to open another factory to meet demand from Ford and some other manufacturers that are on the edge of light-weighting their vehicles. The company had the financial wherewithal to make an important acquisition that boosted exposure to the best long-term theme out there: aerospace.

And now it is all paying off in the higher sales, higher margins and higher profits you saw in the just-announced quarter. It is incredible to me that when this stock was at $8, it had almost no friends, even as there was no reason to doubt the plan. The analysts just stopped listening. They stopped believing. Just when it was all coming to fruition, they abandoned it and Kleinfeld, the man who had pulled it all off.

I am seeing a degree of this same kind of behavior across the street right now on anything commodity or industrial. Analysts are running from all, the good and the bad. They want to distance themselves ahead of the coming quarters. They want to be out in front in their negativity, like they were with Alcoa.

I don't know how horrendous this earnings season will be. But I do know that those who are blind to turns like there were in Alcoa will be blind to the next one, and the ones after that. The best values right now aren't in the consumer packaged goods stories or the utilities or highest-growth tech. They are in the next Alcoas that are reinventing themselves, taking self-help and getting the job done, sight unseen from the naysayers; all done, by the way, with a backdrop of a weakening Europe, China and Latin America.

So, keep joining the herd. Sell all of the oil and oil service and mineral stocks. Dump any industrial tinged with auto or construction or Europe or Asia.

But remember some of these companies look like Alcoa at $8 and are run by CEOs who know what they are doing. That's where the real bargains are. And they can be found, because they are right in front of our noses, obscured by a beaten and scared analyst community that now regularly kowtows to their fears and those generated by the high-commission trading hedge funds that sow the seeds of cynical downgrades at exactly the wrong time.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the stocks mentioned.