What can you expect the day after a big market slide such as Monday's Coronavirus/oil price-war-driven slump, during which declines on the Dow index exceeded 2,000 points?
The easy answer is: more volatility. In the wake of the 10 largest drops, the index saw an average move the next day of plus or minus 3.83%.
The harder question is which direction.
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In seven of the 10 worst one-day declines for the S&P 500, the index rose the day after. Of the three declining days after big slides, two saw relatively modest declines of just over 1%. On one occasion, Nov. 20, 2008, the index fell even more the next day.
In no cases did the S&P 500 rebound enough to wipe out the previous day's declines.
Eight of the 10 worst days for the S&P 500 occurred in 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis.
Monday's S&P loss of 7.6% was good enough for the fifth worst day in the past 20 years.
U.S. markets have been hit by many negatives Monday, as spreading coronavirus cases cast gloom over the global economy's growth prospects, an oil-price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia raised credit risks for highly leveraged U.S. shale producers, and the collapse of U.S. interest rates signaled worrisome signs for global credit markets.
Oil fell nearly 25% Monday, as Saudi Arabia slashed prices to hold and gain market share after an OPEC meeting with Russia failed to agree on sustained production cuts. It was the largest decline for oil since 1991, at the time of the first Gulf war.
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