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Microsoft (MSFT) - Get Microsoft Corporation Report shares are up 30% year-to-date, moving from the lower left of the chart to the upper right in a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows. It's been a beautiful rally, if you've been on board, but if you missed an opportunity to participate, there may be another one coming up.

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The daily chart shows Microsoft shares moving above their rising 50-day moving average and above an uptrend line that extends back to last year. In June, the trajectory of the advance started to steepen and the stock began trading in a well-defined rising triangle pattern. After the most recent successful retest of the 50-day moving average earlier this month, it accelerated higher and broke through triangle resistance. But by several technical standards, the stock has become overbought and is ready for a pullback.

The relative strength index reflects the current overbought condition but in the context of a rising weekly moving average convergence/divergence histogram. Also supporting the premise that any pullback will be short-lived and be met with additional buying interest, is the reading on the Chaikin money-flow indicator. It is well into positive territory and suggests institutional buying has been powering the rally.

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The pullback premise is largely based on the graph at the bottom of the chart. It shows the percent difference between the closing price of the stock and its 50-day moving average. The stock is trading 5% above the 50-day moving average and each time this has happened this year, it has been followed by a reversion of some degree.

It is impossible to say how deep or how sustained any pullback would be, but a return to within the borders of the rising triangle is very likely, and a retest of the 50-day moving average would be an optimal entry point for those looking to get on board the Microsoft rally train.

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The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned