It's down 52 cents, at $972.39 now, but the volatile reaction to earnings will be bananas.
Every day there is a headline about the on-line retail giant Amazon.com (AMZN) - Get Report. Investors seem concerned that it may be expanding too fast into questionable areas. For the next few hours, the stock is a moving target.
The hoopla surrounding the city in which it will pick to build its second headquarters had the stock trading as high as $1,022.31 on Oct. 18. After announcing it received 238 proposals, the stock faced a negative reversal on its daily chart; by Wednesday's close of $972.91, the stock had fallen into correction territory 10.2% below its all-time intraday high of $1,083.31 set on July 27.
Thursday morning's higher open has the stock trading back and forth around its five-week modified moving average of $980.38. If the stock is above this level at the close, a positive reaction is favored. Otherwise, investors are worried.
Investors will sift through a maze of plans when they react to Amazon's earnings report to be released after the closing bell Thursday. Some analysts say the company will report a loss of 2 cents a share. Others say they will earn 6 cents a share. Goldman Sachs poured cold water on Wednesday saying that guidance will miss expectations. They mention the Whole Foods acquisition, the growth of Amazon Web Services and investments in new fulfillment centers.
Growth in prime membership will be an important metric. New lines include on-line gift shops and their expansion into selling prescription drugs. Now there's "Amazon Key" where the delivery service unlocks your front door and drops off your package.
If Amazon wants to expand into healthcare, why don't they buy CVS Health, expand their Minute Clinics to all locations, and open the Amazon employee health plans to prime subscribers. Wouldn't that solve the need to repeal and replace Obamacare?
The weekly chart for Amazon
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The weekly chart for Amazon is positive, with the stock just above its five-week modified moving average of $980.38. The stock is well above its 200-week simple moving average at $594.89. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading is projected to rise to 40.50 this week up from 34.43 on Oct. 20.
A positive reaction to earnings will cause the stock to end the week above its five-week MMA, which would solidify a positive weekly chart and prevent a dip into correction territory.
Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual value level of $753.89, which was crossed to the upside on Jan. 3. My semiannual pivot is a magnet at $972.47. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels of $1,067.69 and $1,121.35, respectively.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.