Amazon missed earnings estimates by a mile for the second quarter, handing over a 40-cent per share profit when analysts were expecting a $1.39 profit on average. Shares retreated 2.48% in Friday's trading session as a result of the update.
But if you think Amazon is suddenly an earnings-driven play after 23 years of not being one, you don't get Amazon.
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Amazon posted stellar growth for the quarter, with North American e-commerce revenue up 26.5% for the quarter. That's a staggering feat for a company that generated almost $136 billion in sales last year. And while Amazon's earnings miss was awful, the 2.48% drop on Friday was a pretty clear signal that even though Wall Street wasn't thrilled with the misfire, they didn't really care all that much either.
Simply put, if you didn't already have a problem with Amazon's inability to generate an economic profit at some point in the last two decades, then you're nuts if Thursday evening's second-quarter results suddenly pushed you over the edge.
More importantly, Amazon is closing in on a major technically driven bullish buying opportunity as we head into August. Here's why you should be ready for a buying opportunity, not a sell signal in Amazon.
First, here's the chart:
You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out Amazon's price trajectory this year. The price setup in play this summer is about as simple as they get.
Amazon has been bouncing its way higher in a well-defined uptrending channel since mid-November, catching a bid on every single test of trendline support on the way up. In other words, Amazon is still a "buy the dips stock" right now. And as shares close in on their next bounce off the bottom of that trend channel, it makes sense to be a buyer.
Actually waiting for that bounce is important for two key reasons: It's the spot where shares have the most room to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before the channel breaks, invalidating the upside trade). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring Amazon can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares.
Relative strength adds some extra confidence to Amazon's upside here. As long as that relative strength uptrend remains intact down at the bottom of the chart, Amazon is predisposed to keep leading the market higher in 2017. Buy the dips.
Amazon shares fell 2.2% to $997.64 early Monday afternoon.
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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.