Week 5 NFL Line Movement
The betting line for NFL games can change at a moments notice. Favorites become underdogs and underdogs become favorites. When it comes to the line for NFL games, it is absolutely a living, breathing, movement generating number.
Every week Jim Cramer and Bill Enright look at some of the games that have a big swing in the odds. Was a quarterback ruled out? Did a key player get diagnosed with COVID? Is there nasty weather in the forecast? All of it (and more) can impact the line being adjusted.
For Week 5 there are a few games we've seen somewhat significant line movement. They include:
Bengals vs. Ravens (-13.5): This is the biggest spread of the week and there's some big ones. In fact, NINE games in Week 5 have spreads of 6.5 points or more. Baltimore is giving Cincinnati 13.5. We just saw Lamar Jackson and company beat the Washington Football team by 14 points in Week 4. Now getting close to two touchdowns again for the Raven's Week 5 matchup. Here’s the thing. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are playing pretty well. Burrow has gone over 300 yards in three consecutive outings, the first time a rookie QB has ever done that. This line moves down a bit, maybe to 12 or 12.5, so take the 13.5 NOW if you want to take the Bengals. If you are looking to jump on the Ravens, might want to wait until the weekend.
Want to take a look at the Colts and Browns. Cramer is always talking about teams that aren’t the center of the NFL media attention flying under the radar and right now that’s the Colts. Indy is 3-and-1 against the Spread. Their defense is playing great, maybe a Top 3 defense in the league. Browns coming off a big emotional, impressive win in Dallas. Started out as Colts giving the Browns 2.5. Sunday night Bettors see the Browns beating the Cowboys and start taking the Browns getting 2.5 points. Spread came down to Browns +1. Then it looks like some BIG money came in and pushed the line back up to the Colts giving 3. That’s quite the jump from 2.5, down to 1 and now to 3. Pretty volatile line, early on. It may settle back down to the 2.5 mark. Keep in mind we don’t bet the teams, we bet the number. And -3 is winning by a field goal or more. So I’d like to get the Colts under the field goal if possible if it moves down to 2.5 jump on Indy. If it doesn’t move, buy the half point, which means you have to pay for worse odds but a better spread in your favor.
For the Steelers and Eagles match-up, we take a look at the Over/Under. It opened up at 46.5 but dropped down by 2.5 points already. 44 is a LOW total. Steelers are averaging 26 points per game, Philly is averaging 22. Philly is allowing 26 points per game, same as what the Pittsburgh offense is averaging. The Steelers are giving up 19 per game. So whether you are judging them by their offensive average or defensive average, both scenarios the OVER should play out. Now is the time to jump on this game if you think the Over is the outcome.
Are you a DFS player or sports bettor? If so, SI Fantasy PRO has you covered for every sport. Whether it's NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MMA, or the PGA Tour, our staff of gambling analysts and DFS professionals (and our NFL lineup optimizer) will help you beat the book and take home some major prizes in DFS tournaments. And EVERY SPORT is included. Become a member of SI Fantasy Plus today.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA).
21+. NJ/IN/WV/PA/IA/CO/IL only. Odds may vary. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.