Trust The Process: Three Key Stats When Evaluating Wide Receivers in Fantasy Football
Fantasy Football lineup decisions aren't difficult when you know what to look for
When Jim Cramer and I launched Bull Market Fantasy back in August, part of our goal was to educate and elevate fantasy football players via the same practices and principles Jim has successfully used when evaluating stocks. The similarities between the stock market and fantasy are incredible.
One of those principles is identifying the key stats that lead to a player's success, trusting what the numbers tell you and then making educated decisions based on the information you've gathered. We call it "The Process." A good fantasy football manager always trusts The Process. Even when they are let down by it or have some bad luck, they stick with it the following week when making the same decisions.
Jim gives the example of playing BlackJack. There are certain "rules to live by" when gambling in a casino. "If the dealer's face up card is 7, 8, 9, 10 or Ace, and your hand totals 8 or 12 through 16, Hit." Sure you may bust if a face card comes out and you already had 14, but the basic math says it's the right move even though it didn't work out in your favor on this particular instance.
That same notion of bad luck overcoming skill but going back to that skill is what trusting The Process is all about.
Now, when it comes to fantasy football, The Process is all about using the right data to help make your decisions.So what is the right data? In the above video I explain to Jim there's three key data points when evaluating a wide receiver: 1. Snap Share (how often they are getting on the field compared to teammates). 2. Target volume (how often a player gets an opportunity to make a play). 3. Performance (what a player is doing with the opportunity).
Understanding those three stats and their significance is crucial for fantasy football success. You may see a player have an incredible game, maybe they caught 4 passes for 132 yards and score a touchdown. That would look great on paper. But if you dive a bit deeper you may realize one pass was a 70 yard bomb for a score and the player was only in on 32% of the team's offensive plays. And those four catches came off just five targets when all his other teammates saw a double digit target total. In this case we would call that player a FITP (Flash In The Pan). The Process tells us that player had a fluke game, shouldn't be trusted, and would likely burn your lineup if you decided to start him the following week.
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