Patriots and Eagles Week 11 Point Spread Analysis
When it comes to winning in fantasy football, good players use every bit of information to their advantage. One great tool to utilize when evaluating which players to start in your lineup is the point spread and Over/Under. The point spread not only tells us which team is the favorite or under-dog helps us estimate the expected points for a given team when factoring in the Over/Under.
For example, the Patriots are favored by three points over the Eagles and the Over/Under is 44 points. Some quick and easy match and we learn the oddsmakers think New England will win by a score of about 24-20. That means the Eagles are expected to score about three touchdowns and the Patriots should score three touchdowns and a field goal.
44 points is not a very high total for an Over/Under. To put it in perspective, there's six other games this week with a higher total. In other words, the oddsmakers don't expect the Patriots and Eagles to be a high scoring affair and that's a problem for fantasy football players with members of either of these teams on their roster.
Three touchdowns is just not a lot of scores to go around for the Eagles playmakers. Maybe Jordan Howard or Miles Sanders find the end-zone. Maybe quarterback Carson Wentz has two touchdowns. But that's nothing that will win you your match-up. But will it lose you your match-up? No, especially if Howard accounts for two of the team's scores.
The Over/Under and point spread is only one of many tools and information one must factor in when setting a fantasy lineup. The other tools at our disposal also include recent performances, defensive points allowed, targets/touches, snap share, and injuries. But at least with the Over/Under fantasy players can get a good baseline of what professional oddsmakers believe will happen in a game.
Do you want to learn more about using point spread and gambling analysis to help you make better fantasy decisions? Tune in to Bull Market Fantasy LIVE at 10:45 am (est) every Tuesday and Thursday.