NFL Week 6 Betting Trends: Shifts in the Odds and Lines
Week 6 NFL Line Movement
The betting line for NFL games can change at a moment's notice. Favorites become underdogs and underdogs become favorites. When it comes to the line for NFL games, it is absolutely a living, breathing, movement generating number.
Every week Jim Cramer and Bill Enright look at some of the games that have a big swing in the odds. Was a quarterback ruled out? Did a key player get diagnosed with COVID? Is there nasty weather in the forecast? All of it (and more) can impact the line being adjusted.
For Week 6 several games have seen somewhat significant line movement. They include:
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Green Bay goes from being a 2.5 point underdog to a 1.5 point road favorite. Very rare to see this big of a swing off of no major news. Remember the Bucs played on Thursday, the Packers were on a bye and this jump happened on Saturday. Packers have looked great while the Bucs have been underwhelming. Still waiting on the data from Draftkings but they had to take a lot of action on the Packers early on for them to go from getting to giving two points. Missed the opportunity to bet on Green Bay now that they go from getting to giving points. If operating under the thinking of the Bucs winning or cover, wait a few days until the line is a Field Goal with Tampa Bay +3.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: Indy opened at -7.5 for their game against the Bengals but after Cincy got blown out by Baltimore, even with the Colts losing in Week 5, the spread shut up 2 points in 24 hours on Sunday. At one point the Colts were giving 9.5 points now they are giving 8 which is only .5 point more than the original open. This number won’t move much, so now would be a good time to buy the Colts at -8 if you think they cover or take the points on the Bengals if you think they can bounce back from their Week 5 loss.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings: We know the Falcons fired Head Coach Dan Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff. Everyone saw the Vikings blow a lead on Sunday night to the Seahawks, 53 points scored in that game. Meanwhile Atlanta scored 16 points in back-to-back weeks. The Over has hit in both games in Minneapolis this year. I’m happy this number came back to 55.5. Wouldn’t have bet it at 57 but the 1.5 point drop makes it enticing. Remember teams play well AFTER the coach gets fired, happened with the Texans just last weekend, so look for the Falcons to produce in Atlanta.
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