Gold has been one of the hottest trades of 2020 so far. It's up 14% year-to-date and its price has been hovering in the $1700 to $1750 range for nearly two months.
Gold miner stocks got hammered during the March bear market. From peak to valley, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) lost nearly 40% of its value, while the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) was down more than 50%.
Since gold miners tend to reflect the current economic environment instead of the spot price of gold, traders bet that demand for precious metals would crater and production would ramp down significantly.
Following the Fed's recovery package of $3 trillion in total stimulus, investors are feeling optimistic again. Gold miners, already trading at discounted prices, have rallied strongly off their March lows.
Since then, GDX is up more than 80% and GDXJ has doubled.
But there's likely more upside ahead. The global recession coupled with mountains of cheap money are making gold and gold miners look wildly attractive even after the recent rally.
The Fed's $7 Trillion Balance Sheet
The huge injections of cash into the economy will eventually devalue the dollar and send consumer prices higher.
Armed with loads of cheap dollars and ultra-low interest rates, increased consumer spending will eventually spike inflation, which is bullish for gold.
As gold prices continue to rise, miners will be motivated to increase production and that will lead to improved numbers on the bottom line.
Stronger Cash Flows
Gold miners are experiencing much improved balance sheet activity in Q1 and several of the biggest producers are generating high free cash flow yields.
We've seen several mid-sized companies join forces over the past year and that should improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs for gold miners in general.
Given this bullish backdrop, I have a $2000 price target on gold and a $45 price target on GDX.
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