Ed Harrison & Peter Boockvar discuss some of the most recent macroeconomic data releases and what they portend for the economy.
- Jobless claims dipped below 800,000 for first time since the pandemic hit and while the trajectory is good, the pace will take longer to recover without a vaccine.
- Inflation could be a key story in 2021 and 30-year Treasury bonds are messaging not just inflation, but also growth.
- The aggressive housing price increases that have been a boon to the economy could eventually become self-defeating and price first-time buyers out of the market.
- U.S. homebuilder sentiment is at record highs, but the problem is there’s not much more you can go on the upside when 50 is the break even.
- The consensus seems to be that there’s no inflation and rates are going to be low forever, but we’re seeing too many signs of price pressures building for that to be true.
- Where we see inflation, it will likely be cyclical rather than secular.
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