Ed Harrison & Jack Farley break down the economic impact of the partial lockdowns U.S. officials are implementing as COVID-19 spirals out of control.

•  A double-dip recession in the U.S. is now the base case for the end of this year and going into early next year.
• Jobless claims data, which rose today for the first time in five weeks, is the first inkling that there’s trouble ahead; the numbers are getting worse and it’s possible the economy won’t just roll over but contract.
• December is a month to watch as deadlines approach for the fiscal cliff associated with a potential government shutdown and the expiration of the CARES Act and the Fed’s emergency lending programs.
• Despite these looming threats, financial markets aren’t telegraphing distress, which suggests that investors believe the Fed will ride to the rescue.

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