Four Fiscal Cliffs Between Now and the Inauguration

Featuring: Peter Cooper, Max Wiethe, and Ed Harrison
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Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week.

  • Jobs data being released this week could signal that the economy is rolling over and growth is decelerating.
  • Markets traded mostly flat on the day despite today’s data, but if we get a negative jobs number on Friday, the bond market is likely to react.
  • The reversal we’re already seeing in the data may accelerate further once virus cases from Thanksgiving are accounted for, which may lead to a robust rollover of growth in the U.S. going forward.
  • Economic pain will come mainly from four sources: consumer pullback, lockdown mandates, job losses, and risk of a government shutdown/government programs expiring.
  • If there’s a negative jobs number this Friday and the government shuts down the following Friday, the equity market will most certainly react.

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