Supply Chain Disruptions and Bottlenecks Dampen the Global Economic Recovery
Higher inflation has been a global phenomenon, even if with different intensities and multiple determinants
Macroeconomic Policy Regime Change in Advanced Economies
Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way to higher interest rates and liquidity squeezes. Finally, because of the previous changes, there was a strong devaluation of financial assets in 2022. There are now fears about multiple possibilities of financial shocks ahead.
A strong dollar is contractionary for the global economy
Three different channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials
Will Latin America Return to Mediocre Growth After Shocks?
Latin America's recovery after the perfect storm should not be limited to a simple return to pre-pandemic “mediocre” levels of output growth
Tightening Financial Conditions Have Impacted Asset Values
What seems more likely is the combination of a global economic slowdown and continued tightening of global financial conditions. Equity markets in advanced economies will continue to exhibit downward slides until the monetary-financial grip eases.
Quantitative Tightening and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
How complementary - or substitute - will be movements in interest rates and central bank balance sheet downsizing? What are their likely consequences on capital flows to emerging markets?
Slowbalization, Newbalization, Not Deglobalization
“the death of globalization was an exaggerated announcement”
Dollarization of Argentina: Revival of a Zombie Idea
Last March, a proposal of dollarizing Argentina’s economy arrived at its Congress.
Emerging economies, global inflation, and growth deceleration
Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks but the impacts have been heterogeneous