Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, Light in the Pandemic Tunnel
Supply Chain Disruptions and Bottlenecks Dampen the Global Economic Recovery
Higher inflation has been a global phenomenon, even if with different intensities and multiple determinants
Tightening Financial Conditions Have Impacted Asset Values
What seems more likely is the combination of a global economic slowdown and continued tightening of global financial conditions. Equity markets in advanced economies will continue to exhibit downward slides until the monetary-financial grip eases.
The spectre of stagflation, with or without a monetary restriction
Quantitative Tightening and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
How complementary - or substitute - will be movements in interest rates and central bank balance sheet downsizing? What are their likely consequences on capital flows to emerging markets?
Slowbalization, Newbalization, Not Deglobalization
“the death of globalization was an exaggerated announcement”
Dollarization of Argentina: Revival of a Zombie Idea
Last March, a proposal of dollarizing Argentina’s economy arrived at its Congress.
Emerging economies, global inflation, and growth deceleration
Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks but the impacts have been heterogeneous
Argentina Avoids Falling into Arrears with the IMF
Last Friday, announcements of understanding between Argentine government authorities and the IMF staff about a new support program were made from both sides. Meanwhile, in addition to the payment of an amortization due on Friday, another payment is also expected this week, both referring to the previous package, approved in 2018 and substantially disbursed afterward. Non-payment could sour relations at a critical moment for a new program to be approved by the IMF's board of executive directors in time for disbursements to cover larger obligations due in March.
The Post-Pandemic Great Reset
The pandemic has accelerated history by reinforcing some previous trends, leading the world to a “great reset”. Among the enduring consequences of the pandemic, four of them are here highlighted: digital transformation has been speeded up; globalization will be reshaped; higher public debt will be a legacy from the crisis; and some economic scarring from the pandemic in labor markets may be expected.
Decarbonization and “Greenflation”
Accelerating the transition toward low or net-zero carbon emissions is necessary to keep global warming at theoretically safe levels. That will likely bring price shocks associated with rising metal prices, energy costs, and carbon taxes – what has been called “greenflation”. Greening the economy will also require public spending and redistributive policies.