Three significant changes to the macroeconomic policy regime in advanced economies, compared to the post-global financial crisis period, have unfolded in the last two years. First, fears of a chronic insufficiency of aggregate demand as a growth deterrent prevailing after the 2008 global financial crisis, have been superseded by supply-side shocks and inflation. Second, as a result of the first change, the era of abundant and cheap liquidity provided by central banks has given way to higher interest rates and liquidity squeezes. Finally, because of the previous changes, there was a strong devaluation of financial assets in 2022. There are now fears about multiple possibilities of financial shocks ahead.

It is in the labor market that the Fed's monetary policy script will be written

Three different channels through which factors affecting bilateral exchange rates operate have been pulling up the U.S. dollar: yield differentials, liquidity differentials, and growth differentials

Latin America's recovery after the perfect storm should not be limited to a simple return to pre-pandemic “mediocre” levels of output growth

The currently global “stagflation” experience may evolve toward one of a “soft landing”, a “sharp downturn”, or a “deep recession”.

Waves of overinvestment in real estate and infrastructure as a growth lever are exhausted

There are reasons to consider a recession call as currently premature, even recognizing clear and undeniable signs of an economic growth slowdown at the margin

What seems more likely is the combination of a global economic slowdown and continued tightening of global financial conditions. Equity markets in advanced economies will continue to exhibit downward slides until the monetary-financial grip eases.

How complementary - or substitute - will be movements in interest rates and central bank balance sheet downsizing? What are their likely consequences on capital flows to emerging markets?

“the death of globalization was an exaggerated announcement”

Pandemic, war and death in Ukraine, and droughts in the last 2 years… Such a combination looks apocalyptical. Now it is adding global hunger risks, because of the food price crisis.

New recent jumps made the increase in energy prices in the last two years the biggest in the last fifty years.

Last March, a proposal of dollarizing Argentina’s economy arrived at its Congress.

Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks but the impacts have been heterogeneous

The relative dominance of the dollar appears to be declining but at a very gradual pace.