The latest super-cycle of commodity prices, starting in the mid-90s, reaching a peak by the time of the global financial crisis, and getting to the bottom by 2015, can be seen as associated to the developments of globalization that we have already dealt with in this series. More recently, some analysts have spoken that we might be on the verge of a new cycle, super-cycle or not.
Financial integration of countries and financial globalization led to an extraordinary rise of foreign assets and liabilities as a share of GDP, followed by stability of total flows since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The apparent stability has been marked by an underlying metamorphosis of cross-border finance, with de-banking and rising foreign direct investment and non-banking financial flows. Blind spots and potential instability remain.
Considering the evidence that institutions are behind a large share of long-term increases in welfare standards, the benefits of OECD membership go well beyond the modest costs involved in participating in the organization. Among the studied benefits are increases in trade – which are larger than those due to other international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) –, increases in foreign direct investment, improvements in education, and better results in governance. Risks are small compared to potential benefits. We estimate the benefits by benchmarking against an estimate of the benefits of acceding to an institution with similar goals and policies – the European Union (EU) – and find them to be very large.
There are three major reasons for central banks to engage on climate change issues. The first is the set of – physical and transition - risks to financial stability potentially brought about by natural disasters and trends derived from climate change. Second, the potential impact of climate change shocks and trends on economic growth and inflation and, therefore, on their monetary policy decisions. Finally, the possibility of using their balance sheets and their macroprudential toolkit to favor climate mitigation.