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IONQ Pulls Back; EV SPACs Follow LCID Down; Chamath Trims SOFI

Some of the biggest names in SPAC land fell hard today while others continued to tread water. SEAH continues to work with the SEC and keep their investors up-to-date.

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It was a day of pullbacks for many SPACs after a week of excitement. The lone deal announcement of Blue Safari Group Acquisition (BSGA) merging with Bitdeer in a $4B deal wasn't much of an event for man. In fact, the lack of any real information on the deal (with no deal deck available) at the announcement left many with more questions than anything. However, Bitdeer is crypto and crypto sells, so in the end it did get a 4% deal pop and closed at $10.39.

There were two votes set for today. The FORE - Foresight Acquisition Corp. meeting to vote on their deal with P3 Health Partners was adjourned until November 24th. DDMX shareholders were also due to vote on their Codere Online deal, but no word yet on results.

Several high profile deSPACs were hit today as LCID tumbled alongside the broader EV community (more below) and SOFI dipped again. For SOFI, Chamath announced that he "sold down ~15% of our position." Many SOFI investors will not appreciate the fact that he casually dropped that fact into a "Market Observations" tweet.

SEAH / Super Group - CEO Eric Grubman Continues Updates

We've been fans of the SEAH / Super Group duo since they were on our Know Who Drives Return podcast (listen to the episode here). SEAH's $4.6B deal with Super Group has a shot of closing in 2021 and investors are rooting for it to happen. As it stands, it sounds like the finishing touches are being made as they go back and forth with the SEC. It isn't clear when the deal will be able to close, but what is clear is that Grubman and the folks there want the deal to close ASAP and are doing what they can to make it happen. 

All that work aside, SEAH hasn't yet broken out as big as some are hoping. Getting the deal to vote and then closed could be a catalyst for folks that got in early around NAV or even now as it has come back down toward $11.

SEAH

After a small surge, SEAH is coming back toward $11 as it awaits SEC approvals

Given Grubman's transparency on Twitter there have been some increasing number of trolls suggesting some SPAC shenanigans. For those in doubt, have a listen to the podcast and take your own measure.

IONQ Can Go Down?

In what may be a shock to many, IONQ -- the most recent deSPAC from Niccolo de Massi and dMY Technology -- actually came down today. It closed the day down 9.8% at $27.96.

Remember, IONQ is a big bet on the future of computing and the company is in the early stages, but the promise is huge. So, for true believers in the narrative and the dMY team, there is no reason to panic. This is especially true for those who loaded up around $10/NAV and are up significantly. 

IONQ shows the significant upside potential of SPACs

IONQ shows the significant upside potential of SPACs

IONQ is another great example of the asymmetric risk profile of the SPACs. For those who bough around NAV, they have had very limited downside risk and have enjoyed massive returns to date. 

SPACs Are Hot, but Not Crazy

Despite the recent uptick in activity in SPACs -- institutional, sponsor, and retail -- we haven't gone back into the irrational exuberance stage we saw early in 2021. The average pre-deal SPAC is still trading at a discount around $9.86. SPACs with deals are largely constrained as well. The one exception being DWAC which has by itself skewed the chart upwards.

DWAC investors may be irrationally exuberant, but most SPAC investors aren't at the moment

DWAC investors may be irrationally exuberant, but most SPAC investors aren't at the moment

EV / Energy SPACs Follow LCID Down

Given the recent resurgence in EV-related stocks, it shouldn't surprise anyone that a pullback came today. SPACs have been a hotbed for EV and Energy companies and they all took big hits today.

SPACs w/ Announced Transactions
-.28% ~ $ 10.57 | TPGY - TPG Pace Beneficial Finance Corp -> EVBox Group
-7.97% ~ $ 13.39 | GGPI - Gores Guggenheim, Inc -> Polestar

De-SPACs

-6.10% ~ $ 11.08 | SNPR - Tortoise Acquisition Corp II -> Volta Inc (VLTA)
-3.73% ~ $ 12.14 | ACTC - ArcLight Clean Transition Corp -> Proterra Inc (PTRA)
-7.47% ~ $ 12.39 | VTIQ - VectoIQ Acquisition Corp -> Nikola Corp (NKLA)
-7.13% ~ $ 14.58 | CLII - Climate Change Crisis Real Impact I Acquisition Corp -> EVgo Inc (EVGO)
-3.68% ~ $ 14.94 | NBAC - Newborn Acquisition Corp. -> Nuvve Holding Corp (NVVE)
-6.17% ~ $ 20.09 | SPAQ - Spartan Energy Acquisition Corp. -> Fisker Inc (FSR)
-5.63% ~ $ 26.13 | SBE - Switchback Energy Acquisition Corporation -> ChargePoint Holdings Inc (CHPT)
-5.37% ~ $ 33.86 | KCAC - Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp -> QuantumScape Corp (QS)
-10.47% ~ $ 47.05 | CCIV - Churchill Capital Corp IV -> Lucid Group Inc (LCID)

SPAC Merger Vote Calendar

Most of the upcoming SPAC votes have at or below-NAV SPACs which could mean more redemptions on the way. DMYQ and DCRC both won't have to worry about redemptions as they will head into the votes with a lot of momentum and commons well above NAV.

Nov 23 | $ 9.97 | THMA - Thimble Point Acquisition Corp. --> Pear Therapeutics, Inc.
Nov 29 | $ 9.98 | IACB - ION Acquisition Corp 2 --> Innovid
Nov 30 | $ 10.14 | TPGS - TPG Pace Solutions Corp. --> Vacasa
Dec 03 | $ 9.99 | GIG - GigCapital4, Inc. --> BigBear.ai
Dec 03 | $ 11.21 | DMYQ - dMY Technology Group, Inc. IV --> Planet Labs Inc.
Dec 06 | $ 10.45 | CBAH - CBRE Acquisition Holdings, Inc. --> Altus Power, Inc
Dec 07 | $ 9.97 | PFDR - Pathfinder Acquisition Corporation --> ServiceMax
Dec 07 | $ 12.72 | DCRC - Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corporation III --> Solid Power Inc.
Dec 07 | $ 9.98 | SVOK - Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp. --> Boxed
Dec 07 | $ 10.10 | DGNS - DRAGONEER GR OP --> CVENT
Dec 08 | $ 9.98 | CFV - CF Acquisition Corp. V --> Satellogic

SPAC Stock Movers

SPAC Gainers

5.64% ~ $ 13.95 | MEKA - MELI Kaszek Pioneer Corp (Pre-Deal)
5.21% ~ $ 10.30 | VCXA - 10X Capital Venture Acquisition Corp. II (Pre-Deal)
4.61% ~ $ 10.89 | PIPP - Pine Island Acquisition Corp (Pre-Deal)
4.21% ~ $ 10.39 | BSGA - Blue Safari Group Acquisition Corp (Announced)
3.08% ~ $ 9.70 | GNRS - GREENROSE ACQUISITION CORP (Announced)
2.37% ~ $ 13.85 | FSII - FS Development Corp. II (Announced)
2.22% ~ $ 20.25 | PSTH - Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (Pre-Deal)
1.43% ~ $ 12.05 | SNII - Supernova Partners Acquisition Company II, Ltd. (Announced)
1.18% ~ $ 9.85 | BLNG - Belong Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
1.18% ~ $ 10.33 | AGCB - Altimeter Growth Corp. 2 (Pre-Deal)
.82% ~ $ 9.89 | BNNR - Banner Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
.77% ~ $ 10.44 | FTCV - FinTech Acquisition Corp. V (Announced)
.72% ~ $ 9.82 | SCAQ - Stratim Cloud Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
.72% ~ $ 9.85 | ATAQ - Altimar Acquisition Corp. III (Pre-Deal)
.71% ~ $ 9.94 | GTPA - Gores Technology Partners, Inc (Pre-Deal)
.62% ~ $ 9.81 | LOKM - Live Oak Mobility Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
.56% ~ $ 9.81 | TRCA - Twin Ridge Capital Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
.55% ~ $ 11.06 | AGBA - AGBA ACQUISITION LIMITED (Announced)
.51% ~ $ 9.77 | KLAQ - KL Acquisition Corp (Pre-Deal)
.51% ~ $ 9.77 | OEPW - One Equity Partners Open Water I Corp. (Pre-Deal)

SPAC Losers

On the whole, there weren't any really big moves down in the SPAC market today. GGPI (merging with Polestar) got caught up in the general downdraft for the EV space that saw Lucid (LCID) drop 10.5% today. It's important to remember that GGPI is still up 33% over the past month and, for many, has the potential to continue the climb given its production numbers relative to the other high flying EV stocks (e.g. LCID, RIVN).

Leo Holdings (LIII), down almost 7% on the day, had its shareholders approve their merger with Local Bounti on the 16th and should close next week. 

-7.97% ~ $ 13.39 | GGPI - Gores Guggenheim, Inc (Announced)
-6.93% ~ $ 9.27 | LIII - Leo Holdings III Corp (Announced)
-3.93% ~ $ 56.20 | DWAC - Digital World Acquisition Corp. (Announced)
-3.16% ~ $ 11.33 | CND - Concord Acquisition Corp (Announced)
-2.86% ~ $ 10.53 | IVAN - Ivanhoe Capital Acquisition Corp (Announced)
-2.83% ~ $ 12.72 | DCRC - Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corporation III (Announced)
-2.73% ~ $ 11.77 | FST - FAST ACQ CP (Announced)
-1.87% ~ $ 10.50 | BRPM - B. Riley Principal 150 Merger Corp. (Announced)
-1.82% ~ $ 11.34 | SEAH - Sports Entertainment Acquisition Corp (Announced)
-1.67% ~ $ 11.21 | DMYQ - dMY Technology Group, Inc. IV (Announced)
-1.66% ~ $ 10.68 | FPAC - Far Peak Acquisition Corp (Announced)
-1.45% ~ $ 10.20 | NGCA - NextGen Acquisition Corp. II (Announced)
-1.07% ~ $ 10.14 | SBEA - SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I (Announced)
-1.07% ~ $ 13.83 | XPDI - Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition Corp. (Announced)
-.96% ~ $ 10.29 | IPOF - Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp VI (Pre-Deal)
-.91% ~ $ 9.78 | DDMX - DD3 Acquisition Corp. II (Announced)
-.90% ~ $ 9.96 | ARYD - ARYA Sciences Acquisition Corp IV (Announced)
-.87% ~ $ 10.25 | BENE - Benessere Capital Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
-.81% ~ $ 9.81 | DALS - DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)
-.71% ~ $ 9.75 | FRON - Frontier Acquisition Corp. (Pre-Deal)

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(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report.)