The SPAC market is shifting quickly as we talked about in more detail in this week’s wrap and last week’s too. One of the things we’ve been looking at is the concept of vintage or age of a SPAC to see if we can use that as we consider which SPACs will trade up or down.

Vintages were a critical component of analysis of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the mortgage crisis back in 2007 (and beyond). The vintages of the mortgages underpinned the MBS became an important and effective factor in forecasting default rates. Knowing if the underlying mortgages originated in April 2006, May 2002, or otherwise meant that you could infer a lot of information about the underlying quality.

It’s too early to know if there is a material shift in how the market treats SPACs by age, but early indications are that vintages do matter and the newest — those issued in the last couple of months — are all showing materially more weakness than those issued earlier. Or, maybe the market is just telling the bankers to slow down because there (a) isn’t enough demand to support premiums and (b) investors are increasingly skeptical of the ability for sponsors/teams to get great deals.

ba-spac_vintages_units

Looking at SPACs with a vintage lens, we see weakness in the Units is especially pronounced for the recent vintages as shown above in the first graph. In the graph below you can see that the Common seems less dependent on vintage as you see weakness across the first 10 months and beyond. Overall there are more than 130 SPACs with common equity and over 80 SPACs with units trading below $10. That means there is lots of opportunity for savvy investors, but it is much more nuanced and challenging to make a return than just a few weeks ago when anyone could get allocation, get an IPO pop and flip for a fast buck.

ba_spac_vintages_common

Take Away

While the shift in the SPAC market is still early, we could be entering a period where the vintage of the SPAC (ie when it IPOs) becomes an important factor in understanding how it trades and the likelihood of a great De-SPAC outcome. Right now SPACs feel a lot like the mortgages from that 2007 time frame — too many, too loose, and speculative financials.

Units Trading at a Discount

-1.9% PLMI - Plum Acquisition Corp. I

-1.3% BGSX - Build Acquisition Corp.

-1.2% KIII - Kismet Acquisition Three Corp.

-1.1% FSNB - Fusion Acquisition Corp. II

-1.0% ATSP - Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners Co

-1.0% ATHN - Athena Technology Acquisition Corp.

-1.0% KSIC - Kadem Sustainable Impact Corporation

-0.9% AGGR - Agile Growth Corp.

-0.9% DTOC - Digital Transformation Opportunities Corp.

-0.8% OSTR - Oyster Enterprises Acquisition Corp.

-0.8% KURI - Alkuri Global Acquisition Corp.

-0.8% ESM - ESM Acquisition Corporation

-0.8% PSAG - Property Solutions Acquisition Corp. II

-0.8% TETC - Tech and Energy Transition Corporation

-0.8% PDOT - Peridot Acquisition Corp. II

-0.7% FRWA - PWP Forward Acquisition Corp. I

-0.7% PGRW - Progress Acquisition Corp.

-0.7% DHBC - DHB Capital Corp.

-0.7% FTEV - FinTech Evolution Acquisition Group

-0.7% MIT - Mason Industrial Technology, Inc.

-0.7% TWLV - Twelve Seas Investment Company II

-0.6% AMPI - Advanced Merger Partners, Inc.

-0.6% ACAH - Atlantic Coastal Acquisition Corp.

-0.6% BOAS - BOA Acquisition Corp.

-0.6% CSTA - Constellation Acquisition Corp I

-0.6% CPTK - Crown PropTech Acquisitions

-0.6% FACT - Freedom Acquisition I Corp

-0.6% KAII - Kismet Acquisition Two Corp.

-0.6% MDH - MDH Acquisition Corp.

-0.6% RCLF - Rosecliff Acquisition Corp I

-0.6% SBEA - SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I

-0.6% TRCA - Twin Ridge Capital Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% EAC - Edify Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% GPAC - Global Partner Acquisition Corp II

-0.5% VOSO - Virtuoso Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% ARRW - Arrowroot Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% BLUA - BlueRiver Acquisition Corp

-0.5% GLBL - Cartesian Growth Corporation

-0.5% DNZ - D and Z Media Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% DHCA - DHC Acquisition Corp

-0.5% EJFA - EJF Acquisition Corp

-0.5% EQHA - EQ Health Acquisition Corp

-0.5% EVOJ - Evo Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% GAMC - Golden Arrow Merger Corp.

-0.5% GAPA - G&P Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% ISOS - Isos Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% ITHX - ITHAX Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% ITQ - Itiquira Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% MBAC - M3-Brigade Acquisition II Corp

-0.5% MACQ - MCAP Acquisition Corporation

-0.5% NRAC - Noble Rock Acquisition Corporation

-0.5% OHPA - Orion Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% PTOC - Pine Technology Acquisition Corp.

-0.5% TLGA - TLG Acquisition One Corp.

-0.5% VELO - Velocity Acquisition Corp

-0.4% ASAX - Astrea Acquisition Corp.

-0.4% CLRM - Clarim Acquisition Corp.

-0.4% FZT - FAST Acquisition Corp. II

-0.4% IPVA - InterPrivate II Acquisition Corp.

-0.4% ISLE - Isleworth Healthcare Acquisition Corp.

-0.4% MACC - Mission Advancement Corp.

-0.4% ROSS - Ross Acquisition Corp II

-0.4% TWNI - Tailwind International Acquisition Corp.

-0.3% TZPS - TZP Strategies Acquisition Corp.

-0.3% AGAC - African Gold Acquisition Corporation

-0.3% BITE - Bite Acquisition Corp.

-0.3% HYAC - Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III

-0.3% IBER - Ibere Pharmaceuticals

-0.3% MACA - Moringa Acquisition Corp

-0.3% SBII - Sandbridge X2 Corp

-0.3% SPTK - SportsTek Acquisition Corp.

-0.3% TSPQ - TCW Special Purpose Acquisition Corp

-0.3% TBCP - Thunder Bridge Capital Partners III Inc.

-0.2% ADEX - ADIT EDTECH ACQUISITION CORP.

-0.2% CFFE - CF Acquisition Corp. VIII

-0.2% COVA - Crescent Cove Acquisition Corp.

-0.2% LIII - Leo Holdings III Corp

-0.2% NSTD - Northern Star Investment Corp. IV

-0.2% RXRA - RXR Acquisition Corp

-0.2% SLAM - Slam Corp

-0.2% SDAC - Sustainable Development Acquisition I Corp.

-0.2% KRNL - Kernel Group Holdings, Inc.

-0.2% NSTC - Northern Star Investment Corp. III

-0.1% EPWR - Empowerment & Inclusion Capital I Corp

-0.1% CENH - Centricus Acquisition Corp.

-0.1% TCAC - Tuatara Capital Acquisition Corporation

Common Trading at a Discount

-3.3% HCCC - Healthcare Capital Corp.

-3.2% SHAC - SCP & CO Healthcare Acquisition Company

-3.2% PPGH - Poema Global Holdings Corp.

-3.2% ADEX - ADIT EDTECH ACQUISITION CORP.

-3.1% EUSG - European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp.

-3.1% CLAS - Class Acceleration Corp.

-3.1% JCIC - Jack Creek Investment Corp.

-3.0% LEGO - LEGATO MERGER CORP.

-3.0% SLCR - Silver Crest Acquisition Corporation

-3.0% EAC - Edify Acquisition Corp.

-2.8% GFX - Golden Falcon Acquisition Corp.

-2.8% POW - Powered Brands

-2.8% AEAC - Authentic Equity Acquisition Corp.

-2.8% PNTM - Pontem Corp

-2.7% OSTR - Oyster Enterprises Acquisition Corp.

-2.6% SWET - Athlon Acquisition Corp.

-2.6% ADER - 26 Capital Acquisition Corp

-2.6% KAIR - Kairos Acquisition Corp

-2.5% DUNE - Dune Acquisition Corporation

-2.5% INKA - KludeIn I Acquisition Corp

-2.5% KLAQ - KL Acquisition Corp

-2.5% MON - Monument Circle Acquisition Corp

-2.5% ASAX - Astrea Acquisition Corp.

-2.5% EPWR - Empowerment & Inclusion Capital I Corp

-2.4% DWIN - Delwinds Insurance Acquisition Corporation

-2.4% CTAQ - Carney Technology Acquisition Corp. II

-2.4% LJAQ - LIGHTJUMP ACQUISITION CORPORATION

-2.3% MAAC - Montes Archimedes Acquisition Corp

-2.3% CND - Concord Acquisition Corp

-2.3% PAQC - Provident Acquisition Corp.

-2.3% DLCA - Deep Lake Capital Acquisition Corp.

-2.3% ROT - Rotor Acquisition Corp

-2.1% GSAQ - Global Synergy Acquisition Corp

-2.1% QFTA - Quantum FinTech Acquisition Corp

-2.0% VII - 7GC & Co. Holdings Inc.

-2.0% BSN - Broadstone Acquisition Corp.

-2.0% GNPK - Genesis Park Acquisition Corp

-2.0% PRSR - Prospector Capital Corp.

-2.0% IGNY - Ignyte Acquisition Corp.

-2.0% PACX - Pioneer Merger Corp.

-2.0% GNAC - GROUP NINE ACQUISITION CORP.

-2.0% FINM - Marlin Technology Corp

-2.0% PGRW - Progress Acquisition Corp.

-2.0% GPAC - Global Partner Acquisition Corp II

-1.8% BCAC - Brookline Capital Acquisition Corp.

-1.8% IMPX - AEA-Bridges Impact Corp

-1.8% OCA - Omnichannel Acquisition Corp

-1.8% EPHY - Epiphany Technology Acquisition Corp

-1.8% LHC - Leo Holdings Corp. II

-1.8% FCAX - Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp

-1.7% VTAQ - Ventoux CCM Acquisition Corp.

-1.7% OCAX - OCA Acquisition Corp

-1.6% HCAR - Healthcare Services Acquisition Corporation

-1.6% SCVX - SCVX Corporation

-1.5% AKIC - Sports Ventures Acquisition Corp.

-1.5% CFIV - CF Acquisition Corp. IV

-1.5% COOL - Corner Growth Acquisition Corp.

-1.5% EDTX - EdtechX Holdings Acquisition Corp II

-1.5% ARBG - Aequi Acquisition Corp

-1.5% MOTV - Motive Capital Corp

-1.5% TMKR - Tastemaker Acquisition Corp

-1.5% LWAC - Locust Walk Acquisition Corp.

-1.5% BLTS - Bright Lights Acquisition Corp.

-1.5% VOSO - Virtuoso Acquisition Corp.

-1.4% MUDS - Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II

-1.4% MLAC - Malacca Straits Acquisition Company Limited

-1.3% KINZ - KINS Technology Group Inc.

-1.3% IIAC - Investindustrial Acquisition Corp.

-1.3% ASAQ - Atlantic Street Acquisition Corp

-1.3% LCAP - Lionheart Acquisition Corporation II

-1.2% ENVI - Environmental Impact Acquisition Corp.

-1.2% TZPS - TZP Strategies Acquisition Corp.

-1.1% HPX - HPX Corp

-1.1% FOXW - FoxWayne Enterprises Acquisition Corp.

-1.0% PHIC - Population Health Investment Co Inc

-1.0% STWO - ACON S2 Acquisition Corp

-1.0% ETAC - E.Merge Technology Acquisition Corp.

-1.0% SGAM - Seaport Global Acquisition Corp

-1.0% CRU - Crucible Acquisition Corporation

-1.0% BCYP - Big Cypress Acquisition Corp.

-1.0% ENFA - 890 5th Avenue Partners, Inc.

-1.0% VCKA - Vickers Vantage Corp. I

-0.9% HIGA - H.I.G. Acquisition Corp.

-0.9% GLAQ - Globis Acquisition Corp.

-0.9% BOAC - Bluescape Opportunities Acquisition Corp

-0.9% GMBT - Queen's Gambit Growth Capital

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