Tom Graff

Recent Articles By The Author

March Jobs Report: How to Interpret and Trade the Latest Numbers

March Jobs Report: How to Interpret and Trade the Latest Numbers

From the Fed's perspective, wage growth doesn't matter anymore.

A Slower but Not Slowing Economy

A Slower but Not Slowing Economy

The economy has slowed from its mid-2018 pace, but it is now stable at this slower pace.

Fed at Center of Yield Curve Inversion and Falling Rates

Fed at Center of Yield Curve Inversion and Falling Rates

When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.

There's an Historic Shift Going On at the Fed

There's an Historic Shift Going On at the Fed

All this dot plot tells us is that there is a large majority within the Fed that favors staying on hold.

The Fed's New Dovish View Has Huge Consequences for the Markets

The Fed's New Dovish View Has Huge Consequences for the Markets

Look no further than Europe for why the Fed has make this shift.

What the Jobs Report Means and How I'm Positioned

What the Jobs Report Means and How I'm Positioned

The 20,000 payroll gain is very suspect. I'm watching, but I want to see confirming evidence.

The Fed, Economic Data and What to Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

The Fed, Economic Data and What to Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

Economic signs point to slower growth, not a recession, in 2019.

Stock Market vs. Bond Market: Is One Right and the Other Wrong?

Stock Market vs. Bond Market: Is One Right and the Other Wrong?

Let's take a look at what each market is telling us.

What the Fed Minutes Are Saying

What the Fed Minutes Are Saying

The minutes certainly read like the Fed is more worried about the economy than just what the data suggests.

Inflation and the Fed, and Europe May Be in a Recession Now

Inflation and the Fed, and Europe May Be in a Recession Now

Price action and fundamental conditions show the limits on how high rates can rise.