When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.
All this dot plot tells us is that there is a large majority within the Fed that favors staying on hold.
Look no further than Europe for why the Fed has make this shift.
The 20,000 payroll gain is very suspect. I'm watching, but I want to see confirming evidence.
Economic signs point to slower growth, not a recession, in 2019.
Let's take a look at what each market is telling us.
The minutes certainly read like the Fed is more worried about the economy than just what the data suggests.
Price action and fundamental conditions show the limits on how high rates can rise.
How do we invest for a probable slowdown but perhaps a mild one?
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