Tom Graff

Recent Articles By The Author

Prepping for Next Week's Fed Meeting and a Deluge of Economic Data

Prepping for Next Week's Fed Meeting and a Deluge of Economic Data

Here's what we could hear and how it would impact the debt and equity markets.

Treasury TIPS Are Still a Bad Bet

Treasury TIPS Are Still a Bad Bet

TIPS just don't have the volatility to produce a big payoff, either in the breakeven or the resulting price action.

How to Play the New 'Perma-Dove' Federal Reserve

How to Play the New 'Perma-Dove' Federal Reserve

Wednesday's FOMC minutes convince me that the central bank is becoming less strict about preventing inflation.

March Jobs Report: How to Interpret and Trade the Latest Numbers

March Jobs Report: How to Interpret and Trade the Latest Numbers

From the Fed's perspective, wage growth doesn't matter anymore.

A Slower but Not Slowing Economy

A Slower but Not Slowing Economy

The economy has slowed from its mid-2018 pace, but it is now stable at this slower pace.

Fed at Center of Yield Curve Inversion and Falling Rates

Fed at Center of Yield Curve Inversion and Falling Rates

When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.

There's an Historic Shift Going On at the Fed

There's an Historic Shift Going On at the Fed

All this dot plot tells us is that there is a large majority within the Fed that favors staying on hold.

The Fed's New Dovish View Has Huge Consequences for the Markets

The Fed's New Dovish View Has Huge Consequences for the Markets

Look no further than Europe for why the Fed has make this shift.

What the Jobs Report Means and How I'm Positioned

What the Jobs Report Means and How I'm Positioned

The 20,000 payroll gain is very suspect. I'm watching, but I want to see confirming evidence.

The Fed, Economic Data and What to Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

The Fed, Economic Data and What to Expect From Friday's Jobs Report

Economic signs point to slower growth, not a recession, in 2019.