Strictly in terms of the trade war, the question is whether tariffs are ultimately inflationary or not.
Between favorable technicals and my view that a Fed rate cut is very likely, I'm bullish on Treasuries here.
After some choppiness earlier in the year, the employment picture has settled into a very strong place.
What happened with the Fed Wednesday and how to position for what comes next.
Here's what we could hear and how it would impact the debt and equity markets.
TIPS just don't have the volatility to produce a big payoff, either in the breakeven or the resulting price action.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes convince me that the central bank is becoming less strict about preventing inflation.
From the Fed's perspective, wage growth doesn't matter anymore.
The economy has slowed from its mid-2018 pace, but it is now stable at this slower pace.
When you hear someone say that a curve inversion 'predicts' a recession, what it really means is that bond traders are 'predicting' a Fed rate cut.
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