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Apple Stock Premarket: Look Up Above, Is $3 Trillion Next?

Apple stock has been having a tough 2022, but shares bounced strongly in the past couple of days. Here is what happened, and what investors could expect to see next.

What a recovery it has been. From the 2022 lows of around $150 reached on March 14, Apple stock  (AAPL) - Get Apple Inc. Report skyrocketed by over 6% in only two days to close the March 16 session priced at almost $160 apiece.

Why did shares of the Cupertino company spike so suddenly? And could this be a sign that the $3 trillion market cap could be reached again soon?

The Apple Maven explores these two topics below.

Figure 1: Apple Stock Premarket: Look Up Above, Is $3 Trillion Next?

Figure 1: Apple Stock Premarket: Look Up Above, Is $3 Trillion Next?

(Read more from the Apple Maven: Apple Stock: The More It Sinks, The Better)

What sent AAPL soaring

The year has been tough for AAPL and the market at large. Apple stock nearly entered bear market earlier this week, after having dipped 17%-plus from the all-time high of January.

But there have been signs lately that investors might be ready to start buying this dip.

It is hard to tell exactly why this vicious (but still very incipient) recovery began to take shape. On March 15, Apple’s nearly $5-per-share spike looked a lot like a volatility-driven rebound from the previous few days’ sharp declines.

But on Wednesday, another similar jump could be better explained by one key event: the Federal Reserve’s first move to raise short-term interest rates in years. The 25-basis point increase has been widely anticipated, and is nearly guaranteed to be only the first of many.

While this was clearly the catalyst that sent AAPL to nearly $160, at the same time it is tough to explain why the monetary policy announcement created $75 billion in market cap for Apple investors in a day. Shouldn’t higher interest rates be a negative for tech and growth stocks?

I believe that economic and business fundamentals have nothing to do with this. Instead, the Tuesday and Wednesday price movements seem to be a classic case of “relief rally”.

Investors had been dreading monetary policy tightening for months. Now that it is finally here, it may be time for everyone to just move on.

Is $3 trillion next?

I believe it is still way too early to project Apple $3 trillion once again — that is, a 12.5% gain that leads the share price to roughly $180. For now, AAPL’s recent $10 recovery could be a dead cat bounce in disguise, as mini-rallies are a feature of soft market conditions.

From the point of view of a long-term investor, however, I would still be interested in accumulating AAPL shares at less than $160. As I explained recently, Apple stock returns have historically been better after shares sink at least 10% to 15% from the peak.

I have little doubt that, eventually (timing here is a big question mark), AAPL will reclaim $180 per share and $3 trillion in market cap. I would rather ride the upside from current levels than wait until shares have climbed much higher to, only then, join the party.

Twitter speaks

Apple stock is having a rough 2022, but the stock gained a quick 6% in the past two days alone. What do you think is the stock’s next $10/share move from the current price of $160: higher or lower?

(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for supporting The Apple Maven)