This Bull Sees Apple Stock Rising 40%

One Wall Street analyst sees Apple stock rising 40% in the foreseeable future. The Apple Maven looks at what could be the key catalyst for such share price appreciation.
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On June 21, the Apple Maven reviewed a cautious take on Apple stock  (AAPL) - Get Report by Wall Street research shop Bernstein. Toni Sacconaghi believes that the iPhone 13 presents challenges, and that waiting to buy AAPL after a $20 drop is most prudent.

Today, we review a much more upbeat take from an analyst that believes that shares of the Cupertino company could climb about 40% from current levels.

Figure 1: Apple store in China.

Figure 1: Apple store in China.

Read more from the Apple Maven: Apple Stock: Why Waiting To Buy Is A Bad Move

iPhone 13: the next phase of the super cycle

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has recently reinforced his price target of $185 on Apple, for an implied market cap of $3.1 trillion. This is about as bullish as Wall Street gets on this stock – a price target that suggests 40%-plus gains in Apple shares three years in a row.

The research firm has consistently put the smartphone at the center of the investment thesis. Clearly, Wedbush and Bernstein have opposite opinions on the opportunity presented by the upcoming iPhone 13, and what it could do to share price in the next few months.

A couple of months ago, Dan Ives called for iPhone 12 shipments in 2021 that would top consensus by 30 million. He also believed that iPhone 13 initial builds could reach 100 million, exceeding last year’s model by about 20 million.

Most recently, Mr. Ives reported on an iPhone 13 launch that he believes will happen on time, around the third week of September. Should he be correct, the release of the new device would still happen in fiscal 2021, and Apple would likely benefit from easy fourth quarter comps due to the iPhone 12 delays.

Launching the next smartphone on time and making it available to the public quickly would be quite a feat for Apple, considering the disruption that the reopening of the economies have caused on the supply chains – including the infamous chip shortage and production labor shortfalls.

Good news on product announcements could be the next catalyst that sends Apple shares climbing from here. I asked Twitter for an opinion (see below) on what would be the driver of the stock’s next leg higher, and over one-fourth of respondents believed that this could be it.

Read more from the Apple Maven: Apple Stock: What Are The Next Catalysts?

Where Wall Street stands

Wedbush is a raging Apple stock bull, but not all of Wall Street agrees that shares have a 40% runway ahead. Currently, consensus price target of nearly $158 per share suggests a 19% climb from current levels over the next several months. Here are some additional metrics:

  • Roughly 75% of all analysts see Apple as a buy or strong buy;
  • Less than 10% consider the stock a sell;
  • The most bearish analyst on Wall Street saw shares sinking nearly 30% in early June. Now, Apple stock would need to decline an extra 5 percentage points to reach New Street’s $90 price target.

Read more from Apple Maven: Buy Apple Stock After The Fed’s Meeting

Is the price right?

Looking at a company’s business fundamentals is only half the work needed to find a good stock. How much one pays to own the shares is a key factor in the success of any investment. This is why valuation analysis is so important.

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(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for supporting The Apple Maven)