Apple Stock: What If Trump Wins?
Election day in the US is November 3. The CNN “Poll of Polls” indicate that candidate Joe Biden has the preference of the electorate over President Donald Trump by a wide margin: 11 percentage points (see below). But the race is not over. Who would be surprised to see a repeat of 2016, when Donald Trump won the election against all odds?
Today, I look at what four more years of Trump might mean for Apple, its stock, and its investors. Tomorrow, I will tackle a similar question, but look at the possibility of a Joe Biden win instead.
All About Trade
In both cases of a Trump or Biden win, I believe that the two main topics of conversation at the White House that could impact Apple the most are (1) trade and (2) antitrust.
On the former, four more years of Donald Trump would likely mean the continuation of a combative relationship between the US and China. The trade war between the two countries began in 2018, and was never quite put to rest. COVID-19 did not help, as the White House has often blamed China for mishandling the pandemic.
Apple has suffered “collateral damage” from the sour relationship between the two countries. After the US declared war against Chinese tech company Huawei, China threatened to put Apple in its “unreliable entity list”. Worth noting, nearly half of Apple’s top suppliers are in China. Also, the country is an important consumer market for the Cupertino company, one that desperately needs a little revenue boost after years of underperformance.
All About Antitrust
Antitrust has not been a top-of-mind subject for President Donald Trump compared to the other items on his agenda. However, Republicans have a fight to pick with Big Tech, especially because of what the party calls “anticonservative bias”.
Due to bipartisan (and popular, to some extent) support of measures that would weaken the alleged monopoly or oligopoly of Big Tech, I find it hard to believe that Donald Trump would stand in the way to protect Apple. The recent US Justice Department charge against Alphabet’s Google for anticompetitive conduct proves the point.
It does not help that the President’s relationship with CEO Tim Cook and the Cupertino company has been “on and off”, as the tweet below illustrates:
Do you have an opinion on this subject? Leave your comment below!
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