The new tax plan looks more and more likely to go through. And while most of corporate America is cheering that move, it's not good for everyone, namely Citigroup (C) .
The financial sector as a whole should benefit. Bank of America (BAC) , JPMorgan Chase (JPM) , Goldman Sachs (GS) , Morgan Stanley (MS) , Wells Fargo (WFC) -- the list goes on and on. Presumably, these companies will see their tax rates fall. Along with increasing interest rates and a more robust economy, the bottom line for the banks should continue to inflate.
So what's the problem with Citigroup? According to CFO John Gerspach, Citigroup could face an upfront cost of $19 billion to $21 billion from the new tax plan. According to Gerspach, Citi would be looking at roughly $16 billion to $17 billion in losses from writing off its deferred tax assets. It would take a further $3 billion to $4 billion hit on repatriating its overseas cash.
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Making matters worse, Gerspach also said fourth-quarter trading revenue should fall by "high double-digits" year-over-year. BofA and JPMorgan management echoed similar expectations, but they estimate those declines to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15%.
The lack of volatility isn't helping matters. While it may allow investors to sleep sound at night, it's a drag on trading revenue for the big banks. The hope from investors is that the banks can make up the growth in other areas, as overall business is still going well.
For now, the news has been enough to throw some cold water on the red-hot bank trade. The question is, will it cool off much more?
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