Oracle May Be Weighed Down by Strong U.S. Dollar: What Wall Street's Saying

As Oracle gets set to report fiscal third-quarter results Tuesday, investors are hoping the company can continue its strength in the cloud amid competition from large-tech companies.
By Chris Ciaccia ,

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- As Oracle (ORCL) - Get Report gets set to report fiscal third-quarter results Tuesday, investors are hoping the company can continue its strength in the cloud despite the surging U.S. dollar.

In the fiscal second quarter, Oracle said cloud software-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service and infrastructure-as-a-service revenue rose 45% to $516 million. Hardware systems revenue rose 1% to $1.3 billion, Oracle said.

For the entire second quarter, Oracle earned an adjusted 69 cents a share on $9.6 billion in revenue, led by a 5% increase in software and cloud revenue. Analysts had expected the company to earn 68 cents a share in the second quarter.

One of the chief concerns with the results will be the impact of foreign exchange volatility, given the sharply increased strength of the U.S. dollar over the past few months. Since Oracle reported in December, the U.S. dollar, as measured by the PowerShares US Dollar Index ETF (UUP) - Get Report, has risen nearly 13%. Oracle has a limited hedging program, so foreign exchange volatility is likely to weigh on both the top and bottom lines.

Redwood City, Calif.-based Oracle said it expected to earn between 69 cents and 74 cents a share in the fiscal third quarter, with revenue rising between 4% and 8%, on a constant currency basis. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the company to earn an adjusted 68 cents a share on $9.46 billion in revenue

Also of interest to investors will be any update on the management restructuring -- and whether Larry Ellison has any thoughts about stepping down.

Six months ago, former CEO Larry Ellison became Oracle's CTO. Mark Hurd and Safra Catz are now co-CEOs. Since then, Oracle shares have slightly underperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) - Get Report. Since the management changes took place on Sept. 19, 2014, Oracle has gained 2%, compared to a 2.1% gain in the S&P 500.

Here's what analysts had to say ahead of Oracle's fiscal third-quarter results:

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White (Buy, $48 price target)

"We believe Oracle will meet or slightly miss our 3Q:FY15 revenue estimate of $9.52 billion with an FX drag (FactSet consensus is at $9.47 billion) and our EPS projection of $0.68 (consensus is at $0.68). Oracle provided 3Q:FY15 guidance on a constant currency (CC) basis (revenue up 4-8% YoY in CC and EPS of $0.69-$0.74)."

Piper Jaffray analyst Katherine Egbert (Outperform, $49 price target)

"While the impact of FX on the February quarter results and guidance could require a seat belt, we expect commentary and results that point to steady progress in migrating customers to Oracle's cloud offerings. We expect uptake and growth in the cloud segment to be the primary driver of a higher stock price over the next 12 months."

Wedbush Securities analyst Steve Koenig (Neutral, $42 price target)

"Despite dollar strengthening throughout 3Q, expectations look fairly reasonable, as ORCL's guidance ranges are wide, and the majority of analysts (including us) have reduced their estimates at some point since mid-December guidance. Our 3Q estimates are slightly below consensus revenue ($9.39B vs. $9.47B) but in line with consensus EPS of $0.68. We think analysts may have gotten too excited by positive 2Q results, which was likely helped more by the closing of deals that slipped from 1Q than by the 12c database product cycle, contrary to some investor and analyst opinions."

Deutsche Bank analyst Karl Keirstead (Hold, $44 price target)

"ORCL reports its February quarter results after the close on Tuesday. The company has guided to c/c software (license, maintenance, cloud subscriptions) revs growth of 5% - 8% (vs. 8% in 2QF15), which given reasonable assumptions implies cc license growth of -1% (vs. flat in 2QF15). Excluding acquisitions (MICROS, DataLogix, Bluekai and Responsys), this guidance implies c/c organic total revenue growth of 1% - 2%. Despite the positive surprise last quarter and the reasonable valuation, we'd characterize buy-side sentiment as mixed/cautious."

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