BlackBerry Tanks on Sell Rating, Alibaba Stumbles on Lower Price Target: Tech Winners & Losers
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -– BlackBerry (BBRY) plunged Monday after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation to sell. Alibaba (BABA) - Get Report also fell after a price cut by Credit Suisse. Apple (AAPL) - Get Report rose slightly after its Apple Watch debut.
BlackBerry dropped 7.6% to close at $9.86 while the broader markets advanced.
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The struggling smartphone maker took a hit after Goldman Sachs reduced its recommendation to sell from neutral. In citing the reason for the lowered rating, the Wall Street firm cited expectations of wider losses in 2016 and 2017 rather than profitability that Wall Street had been expecting. The firm also cut its price target to $9 from $10.
A decline in high-margin services and software is expected to drive the losses in the next two years. The three points Goldman raises, according to a Barron's report, include:
- BlackBerry has guided for $500 million in software revenue in FY16 (Feb), up from $250 million in FY15, as it ramps a new Enterprise Mobile Management business. We expect it to fall short as its target assumes that it can leap frog market leaders Airwatch, Mobile Iron and Good -- contrary to our customer surveys. We model $426 million in Software revenues.
- We expect widening losses and below-consensus EPS as the legacy high-margin Service revenue fall faster than consensus expectations, while the new Software business grows slower than expected/guided. We model (26 cents) in FY16 EPS vs. consensus of (12 cents), worse than our estimate of (19 cents) in FY15E.
- While our thesis is primarily driven by our below-consensus view of Software and Services in FY16/17, we also expect a sizable (13%) near-term revenue miss in the February quarter on weak hardware sales due to a delayed rollout of the Classic. However, we expect that to prove temporary, and expect Hardware sales to drive revenue upside to consensus estimates for FY16/17 on higher ASPs, though not contribute much to EPS given lack of profitability.
BlackBerry's close on Monday brings it full circle to its close of Feb. 12 of $9.86. It also erases its gains when it reached as high as $11.45 on March 3.
Alibaba fell 2.2% to end the session at $82.53.
The e-commerce giant fell after Credit Suisse lowered its price target to $112 from $113 and cut its earnings per share expectations by 2% for 2015. The firm, however, maintained its outperform rating.
Analysts pointed to a more cautious view of Alibaba's forecast for gross merchandise volume during the next few quarters. In part, that cautious sentiment is being driven by Alibaba introducing new policies to improve the quality of its service and tougher requirements for new merchants joining its TMall. It also suspended its lottery sales.
Credit Suisse, while casting some caution on Alibaba's first half of the year, notes the Chinese online retailer should see some acceleration to its revenue rate in the second half.
Meanwhile, Alibaba's lockup is expected to expire on March 18, according to a USA Today report. The lockup prevents company insiders and pre-IPO investors from selling their shares on the open market for a period of usually six months after the initial public offering. Once the lockup expires, investors may be concerned that the shares that these parties have been holding will flood the market.
Apple inched up 0.43% to close at $127.14.
The gain was rather muted despite the iconic computer maker unveiling its long-anticipated Apple Watch, as well as making other product announcements.
The Apple Watch will have a starting price of $349 for a basic version and rise up to as much as $10,000 for an 18-carat gold model, according to the Wall Street Journal. Apple expects to take pre-orders beginning on April 10 and display the watches in its stores. Sales in the U.S., Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan and the United Kingdom will begin on April 24.
Other announcements included a partnership between Apple's Apple TV and HBO. Under the agreement, HBO Now will stream on Apple devices as an a la carte offering without a required bundle service with a cable company. The monthly fee will be $14.99 and launch in early April.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.