Would Releasing Murderers From Prison Early Help the Economy?

Despite the costs of jailing criminals, it is fair more costly to society to release them before their sentence is up.
By Michael Tremoglie ,

"A thug in prison cannot shoot your sister" --Ben Wattenberg

NEW YORK (MainStreet)—When Lenin Peace Prize recipient Angela Davis is in accord with former Ron Paul staffer Gary North, is it not logical to think that soon the sun might explode?

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Currently, there is no sign of the apocalypse, even though Davis and North both want to abolish prisons. While prison abolition is a fringe movement, there is another more mainstream trend. This one spans the ideological continuum as well.

This movement claims releasing convicted criminals from prison early instead of serving their full sentences can be accomplished cost effectively while not jeopardizing public safety. But some studies - which have assigned a cost to victims, government and society as a whole - indicate this is not true.

Besides, implementation of these programs has been tricky.

For example, Connecticut's Risk Reduction Earned Credits Program is being evaluated for its role in two recent murders. The program permits those convicted of rape, murder, human trafficking and molestation to be eligible for early release if they exhibit good behavior and take classes while incarcerated. It is an attempt by Connecticut's governor to be fiscally conservative. The program will save money and chip away at the state's three billion dollar deficit.

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But after a 70-year-old small business owner was shot and killed in June 2012 by a convicted robber who was released early because he earned 199 days of Risk Reduction Credits, questions were asked.

Two months later a store clerk was also murdered. The man arrested was also previously convicted of robbery and assault and released early from prison because of the state's fiscally conservative policy.

According to many studies, these two murders cost the citizens of Connecticut about $16 million. One study, by Iowa State criminal justice professor Matt DeLisi, would calculate the cost of two murders as $34.5 million.

What occurred in Connecticut is not inconsistent with what research has shown for years. Early release is problematic. The fewer people in jail, the more crime there is say some researchers. Moreover, recent research has indicated that the cost of crime exceeds the amount spent for keeping criminals in prison.

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The seminal work about the correlation between the cost of early release of criminals and the increase in crime was done by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt in 1996.

Levitt concluded that the release of one prisoner by a court imposed prison cap increased by a factor of fifteen the chances that a Part I crime (murder, assault etc.) would be committed. He assigned the costs of those crimes as $45,000 as opposed to $30,000 for keeping the criminal in jail.

"For each one-prisoner reduction induced by prison overcrowding litigation, the total number of crimes committed increases by approximately 15 per year," Levitt said. "The social benefit from eliminating those 15 crimes is approximately $45,000, the annual per prisoner costs of incarceration are roughly $30,000."

Another study, by professors Kevin A. Wright of Arizona State University and Jeffrey W. Rosky of the University of Central Florida, indicated that early released criminals in Montana were more likely to recidivate than offenders who were conditionally released from prison. They hypothesized that early release might improve the deterrence effect of prison and strain parole officers' monitoring ability.

The Criminal Justice Legal Foundation (CJLF) did a preliminary report about the increase in crime in California after the court ordered early release program began. The findings indicated that for 2012 "California's large and medium sized cities had sharply higher crime rates over 2011, while national rates were largely flat."

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The CJLF pointed out that rapes declined slightly for the nation but jumped 6.4% for the California cities. Murders rose only 1.5% nationally but 10.5% in the California cities. The national/California differences are even greater for property crimes, claims the CJLF.

A 2006 study for the Washington state legislature conducted by Steve Aos, Director of the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, looked at the question of the cost effectiveness of prisons.

His study estimated that in 2005 for every dollar the state invested in incarceration for violent offenders the return in tax payer and victimization benefits was $4.35.

These findings are not only unique to the U.S.

Italian studies of early release programs, called "indulto," conducted by professors Francesco Drago, Roberto Galbiati, and Pietro Vertova resulted in an increase in crimes. They concluded, "Prison sentences represent effective disincentives to individuals' criminal activity."

Public safety is of paramount importance. Data suggesting that alternatives to prison will cost less and still protect the public are, at worst, completely false and, at most, contradicted by other data.

If fiscal conservatives are genuinely concerned about keeping the public safe and about saving public and private money – they need to invest in determining why America has such a high crime rate and how to prevent crime. But until that is determined they need to invest in the incapacitation of criminals.

This means incarceration - however unpleasant a prospect that may be. Because - however repugnant prisons are - they are infinitely preferable to the horror of being a victim of crime.

John Jay, one of the Founding Fathers and the first Chief Justice of the Unites States Supreme Court, wrote in Federalist No. 3, "Among the many objects to which a wise and free people find it necessary to direct their attention that of providing for their safety seems to be the first."

After all, it is true - a thug in prison cannot shoot your sister.

--Written by Michael P. Tremoglie for MainStreet

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