Will Sportsman's Warehouse Hit Earnings Targets Due to Higher Firearms Sales?

With hunting and shooting accounting for roughly half its total sales, Sportsman's Warehouse deserves a long look.
By Richard Saintvilus ,

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- With better-than-expected results coming in earlier this month from firearms maker Smith & Wesson (SWHC) , analysts have become more positive about demand in the firearms industry. This bodes well for outdoor sporting goods retailer Sportsman's Warehouse  (SPWH) - Get Report, which makes money from higher firearms sales and ammunition.

If Smith & Wesson's results are any indication, there's an opportunity here for patient investors to capitalize on better-than-expected demand for gun sales.  Hunting and shooting make up roughly half of Sportsman's Warehouse's sales.

That said, betting on Sportsman's Warehouse should be a long-term play, given the company's long-term growth objectives and analysts' confidence in its ability to deliver on its promise.

Ahead of Wednesday's fourth-quarter and full-year earnings results, the Utah-based retailer has momentum. Not to mention, at 20 times earnings, these shares are still attractive. That's also given the projected growth predicted by analysts at Credit Suisse.

Sportsman's Warehouse's P/E is still one point below the average P/E of S&P 500  (SPX) stocks.

Still, Sportsman's Warehouse carries a lot a debt, which stood at about $230 million, according to Yahoo! Finance. That's when netting out its cash position of $1.74 million, as of the third quarter. Sportsman's Warehouse has been a publicly traded company for less than a year, so it doesn't have a long track record.

What is known is that the company has aggressive goals, including for the expansion of several new stores this fiscal year. The current store count is 54 (up from 48). The stores operate in 18 states. 

The company thinks the industry, which it projects to grow in excess of $50 billion, is too fragmented. Sportsman's Warehouse wants a large chunk of that market by being a pure-play outdoor sporting goods retailer -- one that can squeeze out the mom-and-pop shops that account for 65% of the industry's revenue. Growing its store count, which assumes most of the debt currently on its balance sheet, will take time.

But it won't be easy with such competitors as Cabela's  (CAB) , Bass Pro Shop and Gander Mountain all prominently positioned in the western U.S. The latter two companies both have more Western stores than Sportsman's Warehouse. Gander Mountain -- at 135 stores -- has more than twice as many locations. Is that a roadblock worth worrying about?

In December, Credit Suisse analyst Seth Signam sees enough growth opportunities to rate Sportsman's Warehouse stock as an Outperform with an $11 price target, suggesting almost 40% gains from Friday's close of $7.99.

“We continue to view SPWH as an interesting investment story for 2015, based on the long-term growth opportunity, the recovery opportunity in the category, the numerous internal drivers and cheap valuation," Signam said in a note to investors. While citing challenges of unfavorable weather and increased pricing pressure in the firearms category, "That story still requires some patience," Signam said.

For the quarter ended Jan. 31, consensus estimates are for 21 cents a share on revenue of $187 million, according toYahoo! Finance. For the full year, earnings are projected to be 49 cents a share, while revenue is projected to be $662 million.

With the stock up 9% so far in 2015 and tailwinds at its back, Sportsman's Warehouse deserves a long look.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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